Aaron Judge’s free agency is set to dominate the upcoming MLB offseason. The New York Yankees failed to sign the new American League Home Run King prior to the 2022 Opening Day, giving the other 29 teams a chance to acquire the superstar.
Judge turned down the Yankees’ contract offer of $213.5 million over seven years in April. How much money will Judge get on the open market after hitting 62 home runs and winning the AL MVP award?
Coming off of a historic season, Judge is expected to command an average yearly salary well north of the $30.5 million per year that he was offered by the Yankees. The $213.5 million offer likely won’t be anywhere near what Judge signs for in free agency.
According to the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, Judge countered New York’s offer with a $360 million deal over nine or 10 years, though someone close to the right fielder denied that figure. Whether or not Judge asked for $360 million in the spring, his free-agent contract could land somewhere in that neighborhood.
Mike Trout owns the largest contract in major-league history. The Los Angeles Angels outfielder inked a 10-year, $360 million extension in 2019, bringing his total contract to $426.5 million over 12 years. Max Scherzer shattered Trout’s record average annual value last offseason. Scherzer inked a three-year deal with an average salary of $43.3 million per year.
Judge could set a new mark for total contract value or average annual value. Because he’ll turn 31 years old in the first month of the 2023 season, he probably can’t break both records.
Position players usually opt for long-term security when given the chance. Bryce Harper, for example, signed a 13-year, $330 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies and reportedly turned down the chance to sign a four-year, $180 million deal from the Los Angeles Dodgers. Mookie Betts, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Francisco Lindor have all landed deals worth at least $340 million over the last couple of years.
It would be risky for any team to give Judge a deal that doesn’t expire until his 40th birthday. The Angels learned that lesson the hard way with Albert Pujols. The Detroit Tigers are currently dealing with the ramifications of signing Miguel Cabrera through his age-40 season.
The top free agents often want to make history with their new contracts. Alex Rodriguez’s $252 million with the Texas Rangers in 2000 famously doubled Kevin Garnett’s $126 million deal, which had previously been the largest in all of sports. Lindor signed for $341 million, putting him $1 million ahead of Tatis for the biggest contract by any infielder. Harper’s $330 million deal is the largest by any player who actually hit free agency.
The Yankees can ill afford to let Judge walk for nothing after failing to reach the World Series for a 13th straight season. The San Francisco Giants reportedly don’t plan to be outbid for Judge. The Dodgers and Mets could become contenders for Judge, and they’ve got the deepest pockets in all of baseball.
If Judge wants to set the record for money made in free agency while also earning more per season than Scherzer, he’ll probably be able to do it.
Contract Prediction: $348 million over eight years
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