Nearly half the underdogs in Week 5 have either the same record or more wins in the 2022 NFL season than their upcoming opponent. A few of those underdogs are strong bets to win outright.
Here are the best upset picks and their odds for Week 5.
Seattle Seahawks (+194) at New Orleans Saints [FanDuel Sportsbook]
The Saints are 5.5-point favorites over the Seahawks, even though Seattle clearly has been the better team through the first month of the season. New Orleans is a game behind Seattle in the NFC standings. The Saints are on a three-game losing streak since coming back from a 16-point, fourth-quarter deficit in the opener to escape with a victory in Atlanta.
Seattle probably has the best quarterback in this game. Geno Smith’s 108.0 passer rating is good for third in the league. New Orleans has to go with Andy Dalton or a banged-up Jameis Winston, who has five interceptions in his last two games and a 79.5 passer rating in 2022. Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara both missed Week 4 with injuries. The Saints are 2-6 in their last eight games in New Orleans.
Dallas Cowboys (+205) at Los Angeles Rams [DraftKings Sportsbook]
There’s mounting evidence that Cooper Rush can be a serviceable starting quarterback. Rush is 4-0 as the Cowboys’ starter since last season, including a three-game winning streak since Dak Prescott got hurt in Week 1. If Dallas can match the 23 points that it’s averaged since Week 2, the Cowboys can potentially upset the Rams.
Matthew Stafford had three interceptions and was sacked seven times in Los Angeles’ 31-10 loss in the 2022 Kickoff Game. The Cowboys have what it takes to put Stafford under constant pressure, potentially forcing him to make key mistakes. Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence lead a defense that ranks second with 15 sacks. Trevon Diggs has an interception in two straight games, giving him 16 picks over his last 25 contests. It could feel like a Cowboys’ home game at Sofi Stadium.
Cleveland Browns (+126) vs. Los Angeles Chargers [FanDuel Sportsbook]
Neither the Browns nor the Chargers have been particularly impressive through four weeks. Both teams are 2-2 without a victory against a team that owns a winning record. Los Angeles will continue to be without key players like edge rusher Joey Bosa and left tackle Rashawn Slater. There’s a chance that defensive ends Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney could return for the Browns in a game that Cleveland can win straight up.
Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt give the Browns the league’s No. 2 rushing attack. The Chargers have surrendered 5.4 yards per carry, which ranks as the second-worst mark in football. Cleveland has scored at least 20 points in every game. Prior to defeating the winless Texans last week, Justin Herbert had a career 6-10 record on the road.
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