Philippines rate cut likely after fed, finance chief says

THE Philippine central bank will “most probably” lower its key interest rate after the Federal Reserve’s own policy easing, according to Finance Secretary Ralph Recto who sees more than one cut this year.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) will consider inflation and the spread of Fed rates over domestic rates before cutting, Recto, a member of the BSP’s policy-making Monetary Board, said on Thursday (Jun 13).

“Surely, it will assess the effect on exchange rates and local inflation before it makes a decision on timing,” he said. Recto said he sees more than one Philippine rate cut this year if “inflation numbers are well-anchored” within the BSP’s 2 to 4 per cent target range.

Recto’s outlook on the rate-cut timing is slightly firmer than that of BSP governor Eli Remolona, who has signalled openness to easing before the Fed does. The two officials are, nevertheless, in sync about seeing multiple rate cuts this year – a view also shared by Monetary Board Member Benjamin Diokno.

The timing of the BSP’s easing in relation to the Fed is being closely watched as the peso continued to trade near a record low of 59 against the US dollar. The currency, at around 58.67 on Thursday, is the worst-performing in Asia so far this quarter, sliding more than 4 per cent.

Fed policymakers expect to lower borrowing costs only once in 2024 instead of the three reductions pencilled in previously. But investors still see two Fed rate cuts this year, with better-than-even odds of an initial reduction in September, according to futures.

Before the Fed’s latest signal, Remolona has consistently said that the BSP was on track to possibly reduce its policy rate – currently at a 17-year high of 6.5 per cent – by 25 basis points in August and probably by another quarter-percentage point later this year, whether or not the Fed pivots to easing. The Philippine central bank holds its next policy meeting on Jun 27.

Recto also said the central bank can possibly implement four rate cuts next year, indicating that he’s sticking with his view of potential 150 basis points in rate reductions to 2025, despite pushback from Remolona.

Philippine annual inflation accelerated for a fourth straight month to 3.9 per cent in May, though this year’s average remains within the central bank’s target. Still, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr said on Wednesday that while inflation is at an “almost manageable level”, it continues to be the country’s “greatest problem” brought on by global price gains that are beyond the government’s control. BLOOMBERG