Solar and wind farms generated more electricity than coal for the first time on record this year, but US and Chinese policy shifts are slowing growth, putting a global 2030 target out of reach, reports said on Tuesday.
The surge in renewable use marks a milestone in efforts to turn away from fossil fuels, which are responsible for most of the greenhouse gas emissions that are driving climate change.
Renewables’ share of global electricity rose to 34.3 percent in the first half of the year, while coal fell to 33.1 percent and gas maintained its 23-percent share, according to Ember, an energy think tank.
“We are seeing the first signs of a crucial turning point,” said Malgorzata Wiatros-Motyka, senior electricity analyst at Ember.
“Solar and wind are now growing fast enough to meet the world’s growing appetite for electricity.
“This marks the beginning of a shift where clean power is keeping pace with demand growth,” she said.
The report found that solar power generation jumped by a record 31 percent in the first six months of 2025, far outpacing wind, which grew 7.7 percent.
Coal fell by 0.6 percent while global gas generation inched down by 0.2 percent.
At the United Nations climate summit in Dubai in 2023, the world pledged for the first time to transition away from fossil fuels, with nations also setting the goal of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030.
The International Energy Agency, however, said on Tuesday that the world would “fall short” of reaching the target.
Last year, the Paris-based IEA, which advises developed nations on energy, had forecast that the world would come close to the Dubai target with the addition of 5,500 gigawatts of renewable power.
But the IEA now sees only a 4,600-GW gain by 2030, or 2.6 times the 2022 level, due to “policy, regulatory and market changes since October 2024”, it said in its latest report on renewable energy.
The IEA revised down its forecast for the United States by almost 50 percent due to the early phase-out by President Donald Trump’s administration of tax credits for renewables and tighter regulatory controls over projects.
Trump, who has pushed for more oil and gas production, called climate change “the greatest con job ever” at a UN speech last month and claimed that renewables are an expensive “joke” that “don’t work”.
Meanwhile, China’s shift from fixed tariffs for renewable energy producers to auctions has shaken up the profitability of the projects and lowered growth expectations, the IEA said.
Nevertheless, China still accounts for most of the growth in renewable energy and is on track to attain its 2035 wind and solar power target five years ahead of schedule, it said.
While growth in China and the United States may be slowing, the IEA said there was a more positive outlook elsewhere.
India is on track to meet its 2030 target and “become the second-largest growth market for renewables, with capacity set to rise by 2.5 times in five years”.
The IEA also raised its forecasts for the Middle East and North Africa by 25 percent.
In Europe, the forecasts for Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain were also revised higher.
Solar panels accounted for around 80 percent of the global growth in renewable energy over the past five years, the IEA estimated, following by wind, water, biomass and geothermal power.
The outlook for offshore wind power was revised lower due to policy changes in key countries, the IEA said — particularly the United States, which has sought to halt projects already under construction.
