Thailand’s top court is due to make a ruling Tuesday which could see the kingdom’s most powerful and polarising statesman jailed in a watershed moment for his imperilled political dynasty.
The political clan of Thaksin Shinawatra has for two decades been the key foe of Thailand’s pro-military, pro-royalty elite who view their populist brand as a threat to traditional social order.
But the dynasty’s momentum is flagging after a litany of legal and political setbacks, last week culminating in their party being ousted from the prime minister’s office.
Thaksin faces a day of personal reckoning on Tuesday, when the Supreme Court is scheduled to issue a ruling on whether he properly served a prison term in 2023.
Analysts say the ruling — due from around 10:00 am (0300 GMT) — may see him jailed.
Thaksin was elected prime minister in 2001 and again in 2005, but took himself into exile after his second term was cut short by a military coup.
On his return in August 2023 he was sentenced to eight years in prison for corruption and abuse of power.
But he never spent a night in a cell — whisked almost immediately from a detention centre to a private room in Bangkok’s Police General Hospital.
His transfer, and the timing of his return, which coincided with his Pheu Thai party forming a new government, fuelled public suspicion of a backroom deal and allegations of special treatment.
A royal pardon saw his sentence reduced to just one year, before the septuagenarian was set free in February 2024 as part of an early release scheme for elderly prisoners.
The Supreme Court’s Criminal Division for Persons Holding Political Positions began investigating in April, and has probed prison and medical officials to determine if the sentence was properly served.
Their ruling will come just days after the Pheu Thai party was ousted from top office, with heiress Paetongtarn Shinawatra felled by a court order sacking her as prime minister last month.
Pheu Thai had held the premiership since 2023 polls, but a coalition led by their onetime ally Anutin Charnvirakul replaced them on Sunday.
Thaksin flew out of the country by private jet ahead of Tuesday’s verdict — fuelling speculation in Thai media he may have absconded.
But he returned on Monday and has pledged to attend the ruling in person.
