President Donald Trump‘s approval ratings have sunk to politically dangerous levels as his second term enters its second year, yet he shows little sign of recognising the crisis now engulfing his party ahead of November’s midterm elections. With Republicans facing the prospect of losing their House majority and watching their Senate edge narrow, GOP lawmakers are scrambling to protect their own futures while the president publicly insists he is winning.
Trump’s net approval rating currently sits at around -12.0 in Nate Silver’s polling average, having hovered between -13 and -11 since mid‑December 2025. RealClearPolitics-style aggregates put him at roughly 44.3 per cent approval and 52.5 per cent disapproval, leaving him about 8–12 points underwater depending on the model used. That marks a steep deterioration from his inauguration, when his approval stood near 50 per cent.
Independents Peel Away, Economy Turns Into a Liability
The most devastating blow to Republican prospects comes from Trump’s collapse amongst independent voters—a demographic that proved crucial to his 2024 election victory. Analysis suggests that whilst Trump won the presidency with 49.8 per cent of the popular vote, his support has steadily declined since Inauguration Day on 20 January 2025, when his approval had already slipped to 47 per cent. The decline has only accelerated, with independents now viewing the president 43 points underwater compared to roughly even support at the start of his term.
Trump’s management of the economy, the core of his 2024 ‘Make America Great Again’ pitch, has become one of his biggest weaknesses. Reuters/Ipsos polling shows only 33 per cent of Americans approve of his economic stewardship, whilst 58 per cent disapprove. On immigration, another signature issue, Trump manages just 41 per cent approval against 52 per cent disapproval. These numbers represent a dramatic reversal for a president who promised to ‘Make America Great Again’ by fixing the economy and securing the border.
GOP Braces for a Midterm Bloodbath
Republican anxiety about the upcoming midterms has reached fever pitch, with some lawmakers already conceding defeat. GOP lawmakers are growing increasingly concerned over signs the 2026 midterm elections could be a wipeout for Republicans that could cost them control of the House and shave down their Senate majority by two or three seats.
Academic forecasters Charles Tien and Michael S Lewis‑Beck, using a model that blends presidential approval with changes in disposable income, project that Republicans are likely to lose around 28 House seats—far more than the two they can afford before Democrats reclaim the gavel. Their research shows that when presidential approval is low, governing parties historically shed an average of 34 seats in midterms.
Signals on the ground match the models. As of early January, roughly two dozen Republican House members have either resigned or announced they will not seek re‑election, the highest attrition rate at this stage in two decades, barring two exceptional cycles. In Texas alone, six GOP incumbents are leaving to retire or pursue other offices, a pattern widely read as a vote of no confidence in the national political environment.
Trump’s Disconnect and a Fraying Base
What makes the Republican predicament particularly perilous is Trump’s apparent obliviousness to the crisis. Political analyst David Faris noted that the president ‘shows no signs of understanding how unpopular he is nor any remote inclination to change course in time to save his party’s congressional majorities’. This disconnect has left congressional Republicans feeling abandoned, with Faris characterising them as passengers on a sinking ship whose captain offers no plan beyond ‘letting them drown’.
The president’s approval problems extend even into his own base. According to NBC News polling, voters who identify more as Republicans than part of the MAGA movement who ‘strongly approve’ of Trump have dropped from 38 per cent in April to 35 per cent currently, whilst MAGA Republicans who ‘strongly approve’ of the president have decreased from 78 per cent to 70 per cent.
Despite these warning signs, Trump’s chief of staff, Susie Wiles, reportedly plans to keep Trump on the road aggressively in 2026, betting that his proven ‘Midas touch’ in GOP primaries can energise turnout—even though his record in competitive general elections is far less positive.
Why 2026 Is a Hinge Point
The stakes in this midterm are sweeping. If Democrats retake the House—an outcome forecasters now see as increasingly likely—they would break the Republican trifecta and gain the power to block Trump’s agenda for the remainder of his term. In the Senate, Republicans concede Democrats have a realistic shot at flipping seats in North Carolina, Maine, and Ohio, creating a 50‑50 chamber where Vice President JD Vance casts tie‑breaking votes.
The midterm elections will ultimately serve as a referendum on Trump’s governing approach. For a president who has built his identity on winning, the looming possibility of a historic defeat represents not just a political crisis but a potential reckoning for the entire MAGA movement.
Originally published on IBTimes UK
