THE US dollar strengthened against the yen on Friday (Sep 20) after the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged and indicated that it was not in a hurry to hike them again.
The BOJ could afford to spend time eyeing the fallout from global economic uncertainties, governor Kazuo Ueda said in a press conference following the central bank’s move, adding that its monetary policy decision will be based on “economic, price and financial developments”. The BOJ had kept rates steady at 0.25 per cent as widely expected.
The dollar rose 1.06 per cent to 144.14 yen, after hitting its highest level in a little over two weeks. The euro also strengthened against the yen, gaining 0.96 per cent to 160.65 .
The dollar has been choppy since after the US Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary policy easing cycle by cutting interest rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday.
Against the dollar, however, the euro weakened 0.16 per cent to US$1.114300. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against major currencies, gained slightly at 100.96 and just above a one-year low.
“There’s a sense in the market that the Bank of Japan doesn’t need to hike rates and also we’re turning to more the political situation in Japan,” said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive in Toronto.
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Markets imply a near 41 per cent chance the Fed will deliver another 50 bps in November and have 70 bps priced in by year-end. Rates are seen at 2.85 per cent by the end of 2025, which is now thought to be the Fed’s estimate of neutral.
That dovish outlook has bolstered hopes for continued US economic growth and sparked a major rally in risk assets. Currencies leveraged to global growth and commodity prices also benefited, with the Aussie surpassing US$0.6800. It was last down 0.37 per cent to US$0.67895.
“It runs counter intuitive to what we’ve seen in the market, with a big cut from the Fed and the Bank of Japan holding rates. I think that the message really from dollar-yen is that the market is feeling better about global growth,” Button said.
China unexpectedly left benchmark lending rates unchanged at the monthly fixing on Friday. Beijing has been hinting at other stimulus measures, enabled in part by the Fed’s aggressive easing that shoved the dollar to a 16-month low on the yuan .
Major state-owned banks were seen buying dollars in the onshore spot foreign exchange market on Friday to prevent the yuan from appreciating too fast, two people with knowledge of the matter said. The dollar weakened 0.26 per cent to 7.053 versus the offshore Chinese yuan. The Bank of England kept rates unchanged on Thursday, with its governor saying it had to be “careful not to cut too fast or by too much”.
The pound was up 1.26 per cent for the week so far at US$1.32895, supported by Friday’s solid retail sales figures, having hit its highest since March 2022. REUTERS
