Citigroup backs silver to soar just as gold’s rally loses steam

[MELBOURNE] Silver will extend a rally beyond US$40 an ounce in the coming months on tightening physical supplies and growing investment demand, according to Citigroup, which reiterated a more cautious stance on gold.

The three-month forecast was raised to US$40 from US$38, while the 6-to-12 month outlook was boosted to US$43, analysts including Max Layton said in a note. Gold’s outlook was unchanged, with the bank saying the peak may already have been seen, and holding forecasts for a drop below US$3,000 next year.

“We expect silver availability to tighten on consecutive years of deficit, sticky stockholders requiring higher prices to sell, and robust investment demand,” the analysts said. “The recent silver price rally is not just a catchup trade to gold but also a reflection of strong silver fundamentals.”

Precious metals have been among the strongest performers in commodities this year, with gold hitting a record and soaring by more than a quarter on central-bank buying and exchange-traded fund inflows, with the US-led trade war spurring haven demand. Silver – valued both as an industrial input, as well as a financial asset – has done even better in terms of year-to-date gains.

Silver will also advance “on the back of Fed cuts,” the Citi analysts said, referring to expected monetary-policy easing by the US Federal Reserve. “We continue to highlight our view that we may have seen gold price highs.”

Spot silver was last just below US$38 an ounce, up by 31 per cent this year. Gold was at about US$3,337 an ounce, 27 per cent higher. BLOOMBERG