Asian markets fluctuated Tuesday as attention turned to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision, with traders hoping for guidance on its interest rate plans as president-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office.
The decision, which is expected to see officials lower borrowing costs again, comes in a busy week for central banks, with announcements in Japan and Britain also due.
Investors are keeping tabs on Beijing after leaders’ latest measures to kickstart the economy fell short of expectations, with weak retail sales data Monday reinforcing the need for more support.
The Fed is widely expected to lower rates for the third meeting in a row Wednesday as it looks to guide the world’s top economy to a soft landing, though its statement will be pored over for clues about next year’s outlook.
Investors have started paring their bets on how many times it will cut over the next 12 months owing to still-sticky inflation, a strong labour market and uncertainty about Trump, who has pledged to slash taxes and impose tariffs on imports.
Stefan Hofrichter, head of global economics and strategy at Allianz GI, said the US economy had defied warnings of a recession and growth was expected to power ahead, adding the firm’s “base case scenario remains a ‘soft landing’ for the US and world economies”.
However, he added: “The wild card is what happens after Donald Trump takes office as US president. The lavish spending he’s proposed could boost US growth in the short term.
“But the impact of the higher tariffs he’s mooted for US trading partners may also dampen the outlook for Europe. We need to wait to see the extent to which his election campaign promises become policy.”
Wall Street ended mostly on the front foot, with a surge in tech giants helping the Nasdaq to a record high, but Asia was mixed in early trade.
Tokyo, Shanghai, Sydney, Wellington and Taipei all rose, but Hong Kong, Singapore, Seoul, Manila and Jakarta ticked lower.
Bitcoin hit another record high of $107,791 on continued optimism that Trump will introduce measures to deregulate the cryptocurrency market.
The Fed rate decision will be followed Thursday by announcements in Japan and the United Kingdom.
Opinion is split on whether the Bank of Japan will unveil a third hike of the year — having lifted in March for the first time in 17 years — as officials in Tokyo look to shift the country away from years of ultra-loose policies.
Still, while the BoJ and Fed are on course to bring their rates closer together, the yen is struggling to strengthen and is stuck around 154 per dollar.
Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.2 percent at 39,520.06 (break)
Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.2 percent at 19,752.82
Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.3 percent at 3,395.67
Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0521 from $1.0509 Monday
Pound/dollar: UP at $1.2689 from $1.2678
Dollar/yen: DOWN at 154.05 yen from 154.13 yen
Euro/pound: UP at 82.91 pence from 82.86 pence
West Texas Intermediate: FLAT at $70.71 per barrel
Brent North Sea Crude: FLAT at $73.93 per barrel
New York – Dow: DOWN 0.3 percent at 43,717.48 (close)
London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.5 percent at 8,262.05 (close)
