[SYDNEY] Australia’s central bank on Tuesday left its cash rate steady as widely expected, saying it was still cautious about the outlook, although the risk is US tariffs could be a drag on global growth.
Wrapping up its April policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held interest rates steady at 4.1 per cent, having just cut them by a quarter point in February for the first time in over four years.
Markets had seen scant chance of a further easing this week given policy makers had emphasised that they needed to be certain core inflation was under control before acting again.
“The Board noted that monetary policy is well placed to respond to international developments if they were to have material implications for Australian activity and inflation,” the board said in a statement.
The statement also dropped an explicit reference to being cautious about cutting rates again, in a slightly dovish sign for policy.
The Australia dollar was 0.1 per cent higher at US$0.6256, while the three-year bond futures held steady at 96.31. Swaps imply there is a 70 per cent probability that the RBA could cut at the next policy meeting in May.
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The recent flow of data have printed largely in line or slightly weaker than expected. A benign inflation reading for February has raised hopes that the quarterly price data due at the end of the month would be tame enough for the RBA to move in May.
“Barring any upside surprises in the Q1 CPI figures due by the end of this month, it seems very likely that the Bank will deliver another 25bp rate cut at the next meeting in May,” said Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics.
Thieliant expects the RBA will cut only by another 50 basis points during the current easing cycle, but added that sluggish consumption meant the risks “are tilted towards more loosening.”
Earlier in the day, data showed retail sales rose a modest 0.2 per cent in February, underscoring consumer demand remained tepid.
The steady decision means the centre-left Labor government won’t get a rate cut boost in polling ahead of a general election on May 3. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is struggling in polls over the high costs of living and housing.
“As well as avoiding the awkward optics of a pre-election rate cut, the RBA’s new monetary policy board will want the space to consider how any pending pre-election commitments may influence the inflationary outlook,” said Pradeep Philip, head of Deloitte Access Economics.
The central bank has pushed back against easing expectations after the rate cut in February, which already lifted housing prices to a record last month.
Global uncertainties
Australia’s economy has moved past its worst, with consumer spending picking up amid lavish government tax cuts. However, the outlook has been clouded by the spectre of a global trade war as US President Donald Trump imposes a blitz of tariffs on trading partners and is set to announce reciprocal tariffs imminently.
“Geopolitical uncertainties are also pronounced,” the RBA said in its statement, adding that US tariffs are having an impact on confidence globally.
Australia is a major exporter of resources to China and tariffs on the world’s second-biggest economy’s goods could hinder growth there and its demand for commodities.
The Federal Reserve has taken a cautious approach to further rate cuts due to concerns Trump’s policies will stoke inflation, though investor anxiety over a possible US recession has also risen in recent months.
“These developments are expected to have an adverse effect on global activity, particularly if households and firms delay expenditures pending greater clarity on the outlook,” the RBA added, referring to the global tariff-related risks.
“Inflation, however, could move in either direction.” REUTERS
