AUSTRALIA’S energy export earnings will ease over the next two years as commodity prices return to long-term levels after Russia’s war in Ukraine drove up prices in 2022, the government’s energy quarterly report said on Monday (Jul 1).
The June-quarter report by Australia’s Department of Industry estimated energy export earnings will fall 10 per cent to A$417 billion (S$377 billion) for the 2023/24 fiscal year, in line with the previous forecast in March, from the record A$466 billion in 2022/23.
That is forecast to drop further to A$380 billion in 2024/25 and to A$356 billion in 2025/26, when prices begin to level out.
“Commodity prices are now returning to normal levels as global supply steadily improves,” Resources Minister Madeleine King said, adding the report highlighted resilient demand for Australia’s resources.
Global economic growth remained relatively soft, weighed down by restrictive monetary policies, though economic indicators suggested the world economy may have picked up modestly in the first half of this year, the report said.
That should support commodity prices going forward, it said.
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Earnings from iron ore, Australia’s top export, will be A$138 billion in 2023/24, but that is forecast to slide to A$114 billion in 2024/25 and A$102 billion in 2025/26.
Iron ore prices have steadied after China, Australia’s largest trading partner, took measures to support its real estate sector, the report said.
Australia’s combined thermal and metallurgical coal export earnings are forecast to fall to A$70 billion by 2025/26 from A$90 billion in 2023/24. LNG revenue could dip to A$69 billion in 2023/24 and to A$59 billion by 2025/26, the report said.
Demand for critical minerals and materials needed for low-emissions technologies such as lithium, nickel, copper and aluminium would remain strong, the report said. REUTERS
