Berkshire Hathaway Shares Fall After Downgrade as Buffett Retirement Looms

Berkshire Hathaway’s Class A and Class B shares fell approximately 0.8% each on Monday following a rare ‘underperform’ rating from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW). The downgrade comes amid growing concerns over business headwinds and the looming retirement of legendary chairman Warren Buffett, who is expected to step down by the end of this year.

The brokerage lowered Berkshire Hathaway’s Class A shares to ‘underperform’ from ‘neutral’, reducing its price target to $700,000 (£526,036) from $740,000 (£556,095). The stock closed at $732,650 (£550,571) on Monday.

A Cautious Outlook from KBW

In a research note titled ‘Many Things Moving in the Wrong Direction,’ analysts led by Meyer Shields highlighted several challenges facing Berkshire Hathaway. These include succession uncertainties and weaker performance across multiple business segments.

Buffett, who is 95 years old, announced earlier this year that he plans to retire as CEO by the end of 2025, ending a 60-year tenure that transformed Berkshire into one of the world’s most valuable companies. His departure has cast a shadow over investor sentiment, with concerns about how the company will perform without his leadership.

The analysts pointed out that Berkshire’s ‘reputation premium’—the extra valuation investors have historically assigned due to Buffett’s leadership and capital-allocation track record—is now waning. Shares have slipped from their all-time highs as investors reassess growth prospects in the absence of Buffett’s direct oversight.

Fading Buffett Premium and Operational Headwinds

The so-called ‘Buffett premium’ has historically played a significant role in Berkshire’s valuation. However, this premium appears to be diminishing as the market adjusts to the prospect of Buffett’s departure.

Operational pressures across Berkshire’s core divisions—insurance, energy, and railroads—are also weighing on the company’s prospects. The insurance segment, particularly Geico, faces challenges as it trims personal auto rates and ramps up marketing efforts to regain market share.

Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group is also feeling the pinch. A relatively mild hurricane season has impacted property-catastrophe reinsurance pricing, which could lead to lower premium volumes and profitability in the coming quarters.

In Q2, Berkshire’s operating profit declined by 4% year-on-year to $11.16 billion (£8.38 billion), mainly due to reduced income from insurance underwriting. KBW expects this downward trend to continue as reinsurance conditions remain soft.

Investment Income Faces Headwinds

Investment income, which has been a significant contributor to Berkshire’s earnings in recent years, could also face pressures. Returns on Berkshire’s cash and Treasury holdings are likely to moderate as short-term interest rates decline, reducing a key source of steady income that has supported recent results.

Sector-Specific Challenges

Berkshire’s railroad unit, Burlington Northern Santa Fe, is also under pressure. Its inflation-adjusted revenue tends to mirror US–China trade activity, and current tariff tensions, along with a slowdown in trade flows, could limit growth prospects.

In the energy sector, Berkshire Hathaway Energy may see declining profitability. The rollout of US President Donald Trump‘s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act’ is accelerating the phase-out of clean-energy tax credits, which could lower returns on future renewable projects.

Outlook and Caution for Investors

While Berkshire Hathaway remains a powerhouse, the combination of leadership transition, sector-specific challenges, and reduced valuation premiums signals a cautious outlook. Investors should closely monitor Buffett’s succession plan and sector developments as the company navigates these headwinds.

Disclaimer: Our digital media content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please conduct your own analysis or seek professional guidance before investing. Remember, investments are subject to market risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results.

Originally published on IBTimes UK