KEY POINTS
- Some Polymarket bettors believe an $XRP ETF’s approval this year is ‘an easy bet for Yes’
- Others don’t think the SEC will approve an ETF for what they described as a ‘s**tcoin’
- The SEC has dropped its appeal in the Ripple case, and Ripple has also decided to drop its cross-appeal
Polymarket bettors are quite confident that applications for XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will be approved sometime this year, possibly due to succeeding positive news around the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) lawsuit against Ripple.
As per data from the decentralized market prediction platform, cryptocurrency bettors pushed odds for an XRP ETF to be approved in 2025 as high as 87% at one point Wednesday.
Polymarket
Polymarket Users Believe It’s an ‘Easy Bet’
Crypto bettors who bet Yes on the event contract shared their thoughts on why there are high chances for the ETF to be approved this year. One user said it looks “like an easy bet for Yes,” and several others agreed.
On the other hand, there were some who doubted the possibility, saying the SEC will likely “not approve an ETF for this s**tcoin.”
What’s Driving the Optimism?
There could be various factors affecting the optimism among XRP holders and other crypto observers, but the most likely reason is the latest news around the SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple.
Last week, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse announced that the case “has ended.” He said the Wall Street regulator has decided to drop its appeal in the lawsuit, marking the beginning of the end of the four-year-old case that has haunted XRP holders.
This week, Ripple Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty revealed that the fintech company, which oversees the development of the XRP Ledger, has likewise decided to abandon its cross-appeal in the case.
As part of the agreement, Ripple will pay $50 million in penalties. The original fine was at $125 million, and Alderoty said the $75 million balance will be “returned to Ripple.”
Ahead of the official announcements, there were already earlier reports that the SEC would drop the case against the company, especially after the financial regulator dropped investigations into multiple crypto firms since new leadership took over after former Chair Gary Gensler stepped down in January.
The lowest odds on the event contract were at 57% earlier in January, before Gensler left his position.
$XRP Price Unmoved by Positive News
Meanwhile, XRP prices plunged 3% overnight despite increasing optimism for an XRP ETF, as per CoinGecko data.
The token’s price has suffered extreme volatility along with the broader crypto market in recent weeks, but it has had good days since new leadership at the SEC started moving to rebuild its relationship with the crypto industry.
