The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady Wednesday at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, marking its fifth straight meeting without a change, a widely expected move that is unlikely to shift mortgage rates significantly in the near term.
Mortgage analysts said that these rates are more directly influenced by inflation and rising oil prices tied to the ongoing US-Iran conflict, adding to inflationary pressure that remains well above the Fed’s 2% target. With most housing economists expecting rates to stay elevated above 6% through the rest of 2026, the market continues to cool. The average price of existing US homes hit an all-time high in June, even as pending home sales declined.
Today’s Rates
According to Bankrate’s survey, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.75% on Wednesday, with the 30-year refinance rate at 6.80% and the 15-year refinance rate at 6.17%. Separate Zillow-sourced data cited by Yahoo Finance put the 30-year fixed rate at 6.69%, up 7 basis points from Tuesday, while US News, using the same data provider, reported a 30-year purchase rate of 6.827%, down from 6.877% a day earlier.
The Mortgage Reports separately cited a 30-year fixed rate of 6.819%. The differences reflect variation in survey methodology and timing among rate-tracking services, though all sources place the 30-year fixed rate in a similar range between roughly 6.7% and 6.9%.
Why Rates Are Elevated
Rates have climbed since the US entered its war with Iran in late February, which pushed oil prices higher and added upward pressure on inflation. Selma Hepp, chief economist at real estate analytics firm Cotality, said mortgage rates are unlikely to fall meaningfully until inflation cools and long-term bond yields move decisively lower, regardless of the Fed’s actions.
The Fed’s own updated economic projections from its June meeting struck a hawkish tone, with a majority of policymakers now expecting a rate hike later this year rather than a cut, as inflation remains well above the central bank’s 2% target.
The Housing Market Backdrop
The National Association of Realtors reported July 9 that the median price of existing homes rose to $440,600 in June, an all-time high. Days later, on July 16, the group reported that pending home sales for June fell more than 5%. Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, said higher rates are going to mean a slow summer housing market.
Separately, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that median weekly earnings for the nation’s roughly 121 million full-time wage and salary workers rose 4.6% in Q2 of 2026, outpacing inflation.
Rates Expected to Hold Steady
Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association expect the 30-year fixed rate to hold between roughly 6.4% and 6.5% for the remainder of 2026. Markets will also be watching remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh following Wednesday’s announcement, along with Thursday’s GDP report, for further signals on the rate outlook.
