The Texas Democrat seeking to unseat four-term congressman Jodey Arrington just received a major boost, however his odds of winning the long-standing Republican seat are hauntingly low.
Arrington, who chairs the House Budget Committee and represents Texas 19th district, announced on November 11 that he will not run for another term, according to KABC. While he formally remains listed as a candidate in some filing databases, multiple outlets — including Newsmax — report his intent to step down after nearly a decade in office.
For Democrat Kyle Rable, Arrington’s exit means what would have been a nearly impossible uphill tilt — running against a well-funded incumbent in a heavily Republican district — is now at least a contest.
Rable, the secretary of the Lubbock County Democratic Party and an Army Reserve veteran, formally announced his campaign in May 2025, as reported by KCBD. He frames his bid around “revitalization of farms and rural communities in West Texas, protecting Medicaid and Medicare, and attacking monopolies.”
KyleforCongress
While the timing of Arrington’s departure gives Rable extra opportunity to build name recognition, his fundraising numbers remain modest. According to publicly available filings, Rable had raised only a few thousand dollars by late 2025.
Despite the open seat, the district remains among the most Republican in the country. The Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) rates Texas’s 19th District at R+25. In the 2024 election, Arrington won roughly 80.7 percent of the vote against an independent opponent, as shown in The Washington Post’s election results.
IBT
Forecasting models reflect that advantage: one model estimated Arrington had over a 99% chance of winning in the 2024 contest. With those numbers, even an open-seat scenario heavily favors the Republican candidate.
For Rable to make this race competitive, several things would need to happen. He must build name recognition across a vast district, raise significantly more money to mount an advertising and outreach campaign, and attract moderate or independent voters — particularly around suburban Lubbock — by focusing on local economic and agricultural issues rather than national partisan battles.
Even with Arrington out of the picture, the combination of district lean, historic voting patterns, and GOP infrastructure gives the Republican nominee a strong baseline. Analysts still classify the seat as “Solid R”, per The Cook Political Report.
As the 2026 filing deadline (December 8, 2025) approaches, the race is likely to draw several Republican candidates vying for the GOP nomination. With Arrington’s departure, that primary could shape the general-election fight more than is typical in recent years. Rable’s campaign will need to move quickly and decisively to gain traction. For now, analysts view his candidacy as having symbolic significance and potential for long-term growth — but not immediate parity.
