Dutch tech giant ASML said Wednesday it booked higher net profits in the second quarter of 2025 compared with the same period last year but warned that geopolitical headwinds had darkened the 2026 outlook.
The firm, which makes cutting-edge machines for the manufacture of semiconductors, said net profits came in at 2.3 billion euros, compared with 1.6 billion euros in the second quarter of last year.
However, it warned that the growth outlook for next year was somewhat less rosy than before.
“Looking at 2026, we see that our AI customers’ fundamentals remain strong,” said Chief Executive Officer Christophe Fouquet in a statement.
“At the same time, we continue to see increasing uncertainty driven by macro-economic and geopolitical developments,” he cautioned.
“Therefore, while we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage.”
When Fouquet presented first-quarter results in April, he also warned of “increased uncertainty” due to tariffs with the situation likely to “remain dynamic for a while.”
However, he had reiterated his belief at that stage that 2025 and 2026 would be “growth years.”
The firm said its net sales in the second quarter of 2025 came in at 7.7 billion euros, at the upper end of its forecasts of between 7.2 and 7.7 billion euros.
Net bookings, the figures most closely watched in the markets as a predictor of future performance, were 5.6 billion euros, compared to 3.9 billion euros in the first quarter.
Fouquet said he expected sales in the third quarter to come in between 7.4 billion and 7.9 billion euros.
ASML is a key cog in the global economy, as the semiconductors its machines help to make can power everything from smartphones to missiles.
Longer term, ASML believes the rapidly expanding AI market will push sales up to between 44 and 60 billion euros by 2030.
“I think long term, the semiconductor market remains very strong,” said Fouquet.
“And I think a lot of people say that AI is really a great opportunity. We have seen again the fundamentals around AI to be very, very strong.”
The semiconductor industry has been buffeted by geopolitical headwinds in recent years.
Washington has sought to curb exports of state-of-the-art chips to China, concerned that they could be used to advance Beijing’s military systems and otherwise undermine American dominance in AI.
In May, Trump’s administration rescinded some export controls on semiconductors.
But Washington also unveiled fresh guidelines warning firms that using Chinese-made high-tech AI semiconductors, specifically tech giant Huawei’s Ascend chips, would put them at risk of violating US export controls.
Beijing described the warnings as “typical unilateral bullying and protectionism.”
On Tuesday, US tech giant Nvidia announced it would resume sales of its H20 artificial intelligence chips to China, after Washington pledged to remove licensing curbs that had halted exports.
