Fed Holds Rates at 3.75% to 4% as Cook and Hammack Dissent for a Hike

The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark federal funds rate target range at 3.75% to 4% on Oct. 28, 2026, at the close of a two-day meeting led by Chair Kevin Warsh. The statement was released at 2:00 p.m. EDT. The vote was 10-2, with ten members in favor of holding and two against. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented, and both preferred raising the range by a quarter point.

Two dissents for a hike put a December decision in view. Traders priced about an 85% chance of a quarter-point hike at the Dec. 9 decision, according to Yahoo Finance’s live coverage of the day, which cites Bloomberg data from futures. Semafor reports that the dissents reinforce those expectations. The decision came six days before the US midterm elections, and Warsh was asked about politics at the press conference, which was scheduled to begin at 2:30 p.m. ET.

What the Statement and Vote Record Show

The statement says the committee decided to maintain the target range, citing its dual mandate. It also says the committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.

The statement describes economic activity as expanding strongly and says domestic spending has been resilient. It notes that uncertainty remains elevated, partly because of geopolitical developments. It also points to strong productivity growth and capital investment, and says job gains have matched workforce growth while the unemployment rate has changed little.

On inflation, the statement says inflation remains elevated and that the committee will gather more information to judge the policy stance needed to bring inflation back to its 2% goal.

The statement names the two dissenters, Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack. Both preferred raising the target range by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting. Semafor reports that Cook had not dissented in a Fed vote before.

At the press conference, Warsh said there are no firm conclusions, according to Yahoo Finance. Semafor reports that Warsh took a hawkish tone and rejected the idea that the Fed tolerates inflation above its 2% target. Asked about the midterms, Warsh said politics played no role in the decision.

The Vote on Oct. 28, 2026
The Fed’s statement records a 10-2 vote, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack preferring to raise the 3.75% to 4% target range by a quarter point.

Why the Dissents Matter for the Outlook

The vote shows the committee divided on the direction of its next move, with two members favoring a hike and ten voting to hold. Cook is a governor, and Hammack is president of the Cleveland Fed.

Semafor reports that the dissents reinforce investor expectations of a rate hike in December. It also reports that the Iran war has continued to push up energy costs, even though other economic indicators look more positive.

Yahoo Finance reports that traders expect the fed funds rate to rise from about 3.9% to nearly 4.7% by September 2027, roughly three more quarter-point increases. These are market expectations as of Oct. 28, not Fed decisions. Yahoo Finance’s figures for these odds were drawn from futures pricing as reported that day.

Yahoo Finance also reports that Warsh said financial conditions are tighter overall but declined to call them tight.

Political Pressure Around the Decision

Semafor reports that the Trump administration had warned the central bank against hiking rates before the midterm elections. Yahoo Finance reports that Warsh declined to respond to criticism from President Trump, and that he heard no talk of politics during the two-day meeting.

Separately, Semafor reports that Trump has revived an effort to fire Cook over mortgage fraud allegations, and that the White House has asked her to testify at a private hearing next week. Warsh said, to his knowledge, neither he nor the Fed would be involved.

Warsh’s comments on politics came at the same press conference where he discussed inflation and the path of policy, according to Yahoo Finance.

Stocks, Treasury Yields and the Dollar

Stocks whipsawed on the day. They dipped after the statement, rallied during the press conference and then gave back much of the gain, according to Yahoo Finance. Chip stocks led. The equal-weighted S&P 500 and small caps were in the red.

The S&P 500 entered the day down on six straight Fed days, and a lower close would tie the record of seven, Yahoo Finance reports.

Yahoo Finance reports the 10-year Treasury yield rose 5 basis points to 5.04% and is back above 5%. The 30-year yield rose 2 basis points to 5.33%.

The dollar slipped against the euro during the press conference, Yahoo Finance reports.

Two dissents for a hike put a December decision in view.

Dates to Track: December Meeting and Minutes

The Fed’s calendar lists the next FOMC meeting for Dec. 8-9, 2026, as a meeting with a Summary of Economic Projections. It lists no minutes release date yet for the Oct. 27-28 meeting. Minutes for the Sept. 15-16 meeting were released on Oct. 7.

For each 2026 meeting with a listed minutes date, the release came three weeks after the meeting’s final day. The calendar lists the June 16-17 minutes as released on July 8, and the July 28-29 minutes as released on Aug. 19.

The 2026 calendar lists eight meetings: Jan. 27-28, March 17-18, April 28-29, June 16-17, July 28-29, Sept. 15-16, Oct. 27-28 and Dec. 8-9. Summary of Economic Projections meetings fall in March, June, September and December. The December meeting is the last scheduled for 2026.

For 2027, the calendar lists eight meetings, from Jan. 26-27 to Dec. 7-8, with Summary of Economic Projections meetings in March, June, September and December. The calendar notes that each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it. It also mentions a two-day meeting on Jan. 25-26, 2028.

The calendar does not yet give a release date for the October minutes.

Process Changes and the AI Task Forces

Semafor reports that Warsh said the Fed will hold one fewer vote per year starting in 2027, giving officials time for strategic deliberations. The Fed calendar lists eight meetings for 2027, the same number as for 2026.

Semafor reports that Warsh said the task forces he created may not finish their work by year-end and that he will attend a Fed task force hearing on AI next month. He also indicated that higher rates are having a cooling effect on the AI boom.

The last 2027 meeting on the calendar is Dec. 7-8, a meeting with a Summary of Economic Projections.