Leaked documents published in the German newspaper BILD suggest that Europe is getting ready for Russian President Vladimir Putin to escalate the conflict in Ukraine and potentially target NATO ally nations in the coming year. The information, reportedly sourced from the German Ministry of Defense, formed the basis of the outlet’s claims.
The report mentions that European armed forces are gearing up for a potential Russian attack on Eastern Europe, with preparations also considering the possibility of a cyber offensive. The newspaper outlined various potentially concerning scenarios that could unfold in the upcoming months. One such scenario, dubbed “Alliance Defense 2025,” sees Russia mobilizing an additional 200,000 soldiers in February.
Germany Gears up to Face Russian Offensive
With Western financial support for Ukraine drying up, Russia would subsequently initiate a massive “spring offensive” against the Ukrainian armed forces, according to the report.
According to the described scenario, by July, Russia could launch “severe cyberattacks” in the Baltics, provoking discontent among Russians residing in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, as stated by BILD.
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The classified documents suggest that by September, the clashes and tensions resulting from the previous events could serve as a pretext for Russia to start “Zapad 2024.”
This large-scale military ‘exercise’ would involve the gathering of around 50,000 Russian soldiers in the western regions of the country and Belarus.
As per the documents, Russia might proceed to mobilize troops and mid-range missiles to Kaliningrad, a Russian territory situated between the NATO countries of Poland and Lithuania.
BILD also reported that by December, Russia could exploit the U.S. presidential election to disseminate more propaganda, potentially depicting border conflicts or riots resulting in numerous casualties. This could further escalate tensions and unrest in the Suwalki Gap.
In January 2025, according to the documents, Russia would allege that Western allies are plotting against Putin’s regime after a UN Security Council meeting.
This accusation could serve as a justification for Putin to mobilize troops in the Baltics and Belarus, with the potential action taking place by March 2025.
Planned Offensive by Putting Blame on the West
According to the leaked document outlining this scenario, if it unfolds, 30,000 German troops would be deployed for defense, while an estimated 70,000 Russian forces would have gathered in Belarus.
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By May 2025, NATO might implement “measures for credible deterrence” in response to the buildup, potentially leading to direct combat between Western troops and Russian forces.
It’s important to note that Putin and Russian officials have consistently denied any intention to escalate the conflict in Ukraine beyond the country’s borders. However, European allies are taking the potential threat from Russia seriously, and preparations are being made in accordance with the plans obtained by BILD.
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Recently, Carl-Oskar Bohlin, Sweden’s Civil Defense Minister and NATO invitee, expressed the possibility of war in Sweden during a “People and Defense” conference last week.
The statement made by Carl-Oskar Bohlin about the possibility of war in Sweden was quickly reinforced by the country’s military Commander-in-Chief, Micael Bydén, who said, “We need to prepare as far as possible, at all levels, throughout society,” CNBC wrote.
German Defense Ministry officials refrained from commenting on specific scenarios outlined in the document but conveyed to BILD, “I can tell you that considering different scenarios, even if they are extremely unlikely, are part of everyday military business, especially in training.”
