THE global sugar market is projected to have a larger than expected supply surplus in the 2023/24 October to September season due to production recoveries in India and Thailand in the later stages of their crops, broker StoneX said on Thursday (Mar 21).
It projected that global sugar production exceed total demand by 3.9 million tonnes, up from 3.4 million tonnes seen in February.
StoneX revised up its projection for India’s production by 1.7 million tonnes to 32.8 million tonnes, and added 500,000 tonnes to its estimate for Thailand to 9.1 million tonnes. Both countries are having a better crop tail, with higher yields in the final stage.
Better than expected production in Asia offset cuts in Mexico and Brazil, the broker said.
StoneX also released a new estimate for the upcoming Brazil’s Centre-South (CS) crop that starts in April. It sharply reduced its view for total sugarcane crush from 622 million tonnes in January to 602 million tonnes, saying agricultural yields will fall around 9 per cent due to drier than normal weather.
The broker no longer sees a record sugar production in Brazil’s CS in 2024/25 (April to March) – despite the higher focus on sugar production by the mills – as smaller volumes of cane will prevent the region from exceeding the previous crop’s production.
It sees Brazil’s CS sugar output at 42.3 million tonnes, down from 43.1 million tonnes projected in January.
Other analysts expect an even lower production in Brazil at around 40 million tonnes. REUTERS
