The United States appears on track to see its federal debt grow to roughly $64 trillion over the next decade, leaving Republican-backed tax and spending plans on pace to wipe out much of what President Donald Trump‘s tariffs are expected to bring in, leaving the national debt climbing anyway.
Gross federal debt will climb from about $38.6 trillion today to roughly $63.7 trillion by 2036, which is an increase of more than 65 percent over the next ten years if current laws remain in place, according to a new report from POLITICO. That would push the debt to nearly 137 percent of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a historic high well above its current ratio.
Taken together, the CBO now estimates that Trump-era policies will expand cumulative federal deficits by about $1.4 trillion more than previously projected, even after accounting for some offsetting revenue from tariffs. Annual deficits are expected to deepen as well, growing from around $1.9 trillion in 2026 to more than $3 trillion by 2036. Over that decade, total deficits are forecast to sum to about $24.4 trillion, a total larger than the entire U.S. deficit recorded from the founding of the republic through 2023.
A major factor in the jump in projected deficits and debt levels is the fiscal policy enacted by the current administration and Republican-led Congress. The 2025 tax and spending package, dubbed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which extends and deepens tax cuts on individual and business income, is projected to add more than $4.7 trillion to federal deficits over the next decade, even after accounting for the revenue that higher tariffs are expected to generate, according to CBO analysis.
Other elements of recent policy, including tariff regimes and stricter immigration enforcement, have fiscal effects that expand the deficit beyond baseline projections. Some estimate that lower net immigration alone could raise the deficit by an additional $500 billion over 10 years by shrinking the labor force and tax base.
Another driver of accelerating debt is the rapidly rising cost of servicing that debt. The CBO projects that net interest outlays could more than double from roughly $1 trillion in 2026 to over $2 trillion by 2036. By that time, interest payments would represent a larger share of GDP than at any point in American history, consuming nearly 4.6 percent of GDP and a growing share of total federal revenue.
Longer-term demographic trends add to the pressure. As the population ages, spending on entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare is projected to rise substantially. With a smaller working-age population relative to retirees, revenue growth is forecast to lag behind these mandatory outlays, compounding the structural imbalance in federal finances.
