[SINGAPORE] Singapore-headquartered tech giants Grab and Sea – both listed in the United States – have not been spared amid a wider market sell-off sparked by “reciprocal tariffs” announced by US President Donald Trump on Apr 2.
Since the announcement, Grab has tumbled some 19 per cent to US$3.73 as at Apr 8 and Sea has shed about 21.5 per cent to US$105.57.
But analysts are confident that they will emerge as winners amid Trump’s tsunami of tariffs.
As Internet companies with no direct US export exposure or operations, Grab and Sea are shielded from higher tariffs, Maybank Research said in a recent report.
BT in your inbox
Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox.
But there could be an indirect impact from slowing economic growth in South-east Asia, which would lead to consumer spending cuts. There is a 77 per cent correlation between gross domestic product (GDP) growth and consumer spending, said Hussaini Saifee, analyst at Maybank Research.
He added that Maybank Research’s economics team sees the negative GDP impact on the companies’ revenue at just 1 to 3 per cent.
Discretionary spending on e-commerce platforms could also take a hit. However, the impact could be offset by consumers looking to e-commerce platforms for cheaper alternatives.
He added that on-demand ride hailing and food delivery – considered as discretionary spending – could see a bigger impact, which could be greater than the correlation between GDP and retail sales.
Phillip Securities on Tuesday (Apr 8) initiated coverage on Grab with a “buy” call and a target price of US$5.80.
Momentum in on-demand services – which has grown from US$400 million in FY2020 to US$2.5 billion in FY2024 – as well as monthly transacting user growth of 16 per cent are positive factors, said Helena Wang, analyst at Phillip Securities.
“As more users opt into subscriptions and rely on the platform for daily needs, this should translate into a stickier user base, stronger customer retention and a more stable, recurring revenue stream,” she explained.
The growth of its financial services is another positive factor, with revenue growing from US$10 million in FY2020 to US$253 million in FY2024. Grab’s loan portfolio also surged 64 per cent year on year in FY2024, and deposits rose from US$3 million in FY2022 to US$1.3 billion in FY2024.
Non-performing loans remained stable at 2 per cent, slightly higher than Sea’s financial services arm SeaMoney at 1.2 per cent.
“Grab’s recent partnership with BYD, which offers loans to drivers, is poised to drive further growth. We estimate it will add about US$400 million to its current US$536 million loan portfolio,” said Wang.
Further expansion is in the offing, with Grab’s management indicating a focus on tapping its 30 per cent net cash position of US$5.7 billion to support organic growth and investments into artificial intelligence and expanding its electric vehicle fleet.
Grab has also acquired a taxi operator licence in Singapore, a move that should help with the lack of drivers to supply demand here.
In FY2024, Grab’s revenue improved 19 per cent to US$2.8 billion, from US$2.4 billion in FY2023. Losses for FY2024 narrowed to US$105 million, from US$434 million in the previous year. This was due to lower costs and share-based compensation expenses.
Sea’s revenue rose 28.8 per cent to US$16.8 billion in FY2024, from US$13.1 billion in FY2023. Earnings jumped 175.3 per cent to US$447.8 million, driven by higher revenue and the non-impairment of goodwill in FY2024.
Grab and Sea will be releasing their first-quarter 2025 results soon.
