Four Republicans have already announced they are running for president in 2024 in what could be a highly difficult path to victory. Democrats have won the popular vote in seven of the last eight elections and a Democrat is currently in office.
The White House hopes for Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, Montana Secretary of State Corey Stapleton and little-known entrepreneur and political commentator Vivek Ramaswamy, may hinge on American sentiment about President Joe Biden‘s term. Incumbents traditionally fare better than challengers but not when they have high disapproval ratings.
Since August 2021, Biden has seen a sharp dip from strong early job approval ratings. But in recent weeks he appears to have mounted a comeback.
On Friday, the right-leaning Rasmussen Reports showed Biden with a 48% approval rating and a 50% disapproval rating. The numbers are an uptick from late February 2022, when Biden had a 44% approval rating and a 54% disapproval rating. Rasmussen Reports’ tracking poll, which Trump often cited disproportionately while in office, was sponsored by author Miranda Devine’s book that is entitled “Laptop From Hell” and features a picture of Biden’s son smoking a cigarette.
An NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll released in mid-February showed Biden with a stronger approval rating than a disapproval rating: 49% compared to 45%. In late February, a poll by The Economist/YouGov showed Biden with a 48% approval rating and a 50% disapproval rating — a big jump from two weeks earlier when he was at 45% approval and 52% disapproval.
But not all the polls are rosy for Biden.
The most recent polls from Quinnipiac University and Harvard CAPS/Harris, both released in mid-February, showed Biden with a 55% disapproval rating.
Biden can still take solace in Trump’s weaker poll numbers in March 2019, when three polls showed Trump with an approval rating under 40%.
The economy is often a key determining factor for a president’s approval numbers. The property market, as well as layoffs in the technology industry, may suggest a recession awaits.
Brent Schutte, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management chief investment officer, told CNBC on Friday that he expects a mild, short recession with inflation dropping.
