The indictment of former President Donald Trump for alleged attempts to overturn the 2020 presidential election defeat is unlikely to dent his chances of securing the Republican party nomination next year, but could instead make that path easier, according to observers and analysts.
At the moment, Trump has a seemingly unassailable lead over his nearest rival Ron DeSantis, whom he leads by more than 30 percentage points. According to experts, no candidate who secured such a lead at this stage of campaigning ever lost the race to GoP nomination.
Talking Points
“This will rally his supporters to his talking points – about how the establishment and the ‘deep state’ are against him and against them,” political analyst Stu Rothenberg told Reuters. Trump has been successful in rallying the support of his fans in the GoP by reiterating the line that a Beltway conspiracy is behind his indictments.
“They’re not indicting me, they’re indicting you. I just happen to be standing in their way,” Trump told his supporters earlier, underlining his argument that the ordinary Americans were the outsiders in the power dynamics in Washington and that he was their best bet for representation in power.
Trump was indicted on Tuesday over his alleged participation in a conspiracy to overturn the 2020 election results. The indictment came as a grand jury agreed to charge Trump with ‘conspiracy to defraud the United States’. He was also accused of witness tampering and obstruction of an attempt to obstruct an official proceeding. Trump is slated to appear in court on Thursday, when he will plead not guilty, setting the stage for a lengthy trial that could go right into the peak stages of next year’s presidential campaign.
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Though Trump is firmly positioned in the lead at the moment and is almost certain to clinch the Republican nomination, analysts doubt if the same momentum can be maintained in the presidential election. They argue that Trump could win the nomination by virtue of the ardent support of his fans in the GoP, he will need to secure the votes of more moderate Republicans as well as some Democrats to win the presidency.
What are Other Cases Against Trump?
The former president will undergo trials in October 2023 in New York, to defend against a civil lawsuit by the NY attorney general. The lawsuit alleges that Trump, his adult sons and the Trump Organization were involved in a $250 million fraud for inflating the values of their properties including the golf courses and hotels. Though Trump is not required to attend the trial, his lawyers figure out that he may be called to testify. The NY Attorney is seeking a ban on Trump from doing business in New York.
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In January 2024, Trump will have another court date where he will defend against a lawsuit by former magazine columnist E. Jean Carroll. The suit accused him of defamation over statements denying allegation that he raped her in the mid-1990s. Trump is facing more than $10 million in damages in this case.
Again, in March 2024, a Manhattan jury will decide issue the verdict in a case that accuses Trump of falsifying business records to hide the hush-money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels. The suit alleges that Trump falsified records to cover up the payment of money to lawyer Michael Cohen who passed on the amount to Daniels in 2016. Trump has pleaded not guilty to the charges.
