A mysterious trader has turned a $32,000 bet into a nearly half-million-dollar windfall by predicting the exact timing of the U.S. military raid on Venezuela, sparking a global firestorm of insider trading allegations.
The account, which surfaced on the cryptocurrency prediction market Polymarket just days before the 3 January 2026 operation, wagered heavily on the capture of Nicolás Maduro when the odds of such an event were languishing at a mere six per cent.
Following the unannounced special forces mission that saw Maduro extracted from Caracas and flown to New York, the anonymous trader’s return hit a staggering 1,242 per cent, a timing so surgical that online sleuths have begun pointing fingers at a figure with potential proximity to the Oval Office: the President’s son, Barron Trump
The Anatomy Of The Maduro Prediction Market Windfall
The mystery account funneled $32,538 into ‘Yes’ positions, snapping up shares for approximately 7 cents each. It was a move of absolute confidence that made this unknown entity the largest single shareholder in the market.
The payoff was instantaneous. Less than 24 hours later, following an unannounced U.S. special forces operation that extracted Maduro from Caracas overnight, the investment’s value exploded. By the time Donald Trump officially confirmed the capture, the initial stake had ballooned to $436,750, a staggering return of 1,242 per cent.
Blockchain analysts at Lookonchain have since identified three specific wallets that placed these heavy bets just hours before the invasion. These accounts were created and pre-funded days in advance, eventually walking away with a combined profit of $630,484.
The precision of these trades has led many to question whether this was a case of remarkable foresight or a massive, profitable breach of state secrets.
Insider Trading Allegations And The Barron Trump Speculation
The social media platform X has become the primary arena for those debating the ethics of the windfall. Eric Feigl-Ding, a prominent researcher, was among the first to label the activity as ‘insider trading’, calling the move ‘disgusting’ given its proximity to the military operation.
Another user pointed out the ‘perfectly normal, totally unsuspicious’ nature of a brand-new account quietly loading up tens of thousands of dollars on a specific extraction mission just before it became global news.
While the internet remains convinced that 19-year-old Barron Trump is the shadow trader, it is crucial to note that no formal evidence currently links him to these wallets. However, the Trump family’s fingerprints are all over the prediction market industry.
Donald Trump Jr. has served as a strategic advisor to Kalshi since January 2025 and joined Polymarket’s advisory board in August 2025 following an eight-figure investment from his venture capital firm. Kalshi has since reiterated that it strictly prohibits trading by anyone with access to ‘material non-public information’.
As the digital dust settles, the human consequences of the raid are playing out in a New York courtroom. Appearing before a judge earlier this week, a defiant Maduro pleaded his innocence in Spanish, stating, ‘I am not guilty, I am a decent man. I am still the president of my country.’
He claimed he had been ‘kidnapped’ from his home, even as Vice President Delcy Rodriguez assumes power in his absence. When asked on Sunday who was now ‘in charge’ of Venezuela, President Trump offered a chillingly simple assessment: ‘We’re in charge.’
Originally published on IBTimes UK
