MONEY managers pulled cash from exchange-traded funds that buy Chinese stocks last week as Donald Trump’s election victory stoked the risk of tougher tariffs, while stimulus measures failed to reassure investors that China can weather the coming storm.
The US$9.5 billion iShares China Large-Cap ETF, known by its ticker FXI, saw US$315 million in outflows last week, extending a four-week streak of withdrawals following massive inflows earlier in October. The iShares MSCI China ETF, ticker MCHI, recorded US$280 million in outflows over the same period.
Emerging-market investors navigated through turbulent waters last week in light of Trump’s win and the potential impacts from his trade policies when he takes office. Throughout his campaign, Trump vowed to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 60 per cent.
“China ETFs have taken a large hit as Trump has historically focused on reducing reliance on China to boost American manufacturing,” said Roxanna Islam, head of sector & industry research at TMX VettaFi. “Investors are very bullish on US equities following Trump’s win, but have pulled back on many international funds due to potential trade policy changes and tariffs.”
The so-called Trump trade – bullish bets on sectors that could benefit from the incoming president’s tax cuts and deregulation – has also crimped interest in risky assets.
Beyond the impacts of a Trump administration, markets were disappointed after Beijing announced its latest stimulus package, which relieved some of the debt burden on local governments but lacked the sweeping fiscal support many investors had hoped for.
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“Investors were looking for a stimulus plan that would address China’s rising debt levels, but were underwhelmed at the lack of a broader plan in response to a Trump presidency,” said Islam.
The prospects for China ETFs aren’t much better this week. The latest economic data released in China over the weekend bolstered demands for stronger fiscal stimulus. UBS even lowered its 2025 growth forecast for the nation, saying the economy will expand “around 4 per cent” in 2025 and at a “considerably lower” pace in 2026. The bank added that it expects the incoming Trump administration to impose additional tariffs on most imports from China in a “staged manner” starting in the second half of next year.
“China gave us more of a band aide than a shot,” said Malcolm Dorson, senior portfolio manager at Global X Management. “Big picture, there will be more meetings and more stimulus to come, but the market is losing patience.”
Other funds tracking emerging-market equities also took a hit. The US$16.4 billion iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China ETF recorded US$258 million in outflows last week, its biggest loss on record. While the outflows are eye-catching, Dorson said it does not mean that it’s a broad-base move.
“Big picture, ex-China funds should have done relatively well last week, and should continue to cannibalise broad EM strategies,” he said. BLOOMBERG
