Vice President Kamala Harris has a 4.2 percentage point lead over Donald Trump in national polling averages compiled by the Hill, but the margins between the two political rivals are razor thin in a number of battleground states, leaving the election a toss up.
The Hill and Decision Desk HQ give the Harris campaign a 56% chance of winning in November, with caveats.
The analysis by the Hill and DDQ says the race will come down to seven battleground states, but neither Harris nor Trump have an advantage of 3 points or more in them.
And in three — Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina — the margin is less than 1 point.
Harris is up by 6 points nationally in a Reuters/Ipsos poll, ahead by 5 points in a Morning Consult poll, and 4 points in a CBS News/YouGov survey.
The Hill says her gains are a positive factor for her campaign and indicates she’s still gaining ground since she won the nomination in August. But the report also recalls that Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 but lost the election to Trump in the Electoral College.
Still, Harris appears to be making inroads in North Carolina and Georgia, where Trump’s lead is under a single point, according to the Hill’s averages.
At the same time, Bloomberg/Morning Consult polls show Harris up by 2 points in North Carolina, and tied with Trump in Georgia.
The report said the states are significant to the Harris campaign because both are “among the reddest of the battlegrounds. North Carolina is the only one of the seven battleground states that Trump carried in 2020. Biden won Georgia but was the first Democrat to do so since former President Clinton in 1992.”
It also said that if Harris carries both states, she broadens her path to victory and could even afford to lose Pennsylvania.
“In that scenario, North Carolina, Georgia and Michigan would be enough to win her the election, barring major upsets elsewhere,” it said.
For Trump, Arizona appears to be a positive.
He’s ahead by 6 points in a USA Today/Suffolk University poll, and up 5 points in a New York Times/Siena College Poll.
In all-important Pennsylvania, Harris has a 1.3 point lead, according to the Hill/DDQ averages.
But there are also red flags in the Keystone State for the vice president.
“Harris is benefiting in the polling averages from the Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey, which delivered unusually good results for her across several states,” the Hill said.
“In Pennsylvania, the Bloomberg poll put Harris up by 5 points among likely voters. That’s a stark contrast to four other recent polls in the Keystone State, every one of which showed the race exactly tied,” it said.
