KEY POINTS
- Seyffart and Balchunas noted that the SEC may ‘likely’ view $LTC and $DOGE as commodities, not securities
- The analysts project $SOL ETFs have 70% odds of getting SEC approval, while $XRP ETFs have 65% approval odds
- Odds of approval may increase as the filings go through the arduous SEC approval process: Balchunas
Bloomberg senior exchange-traded fund (ETF) analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas projected that Litecoin (LTC) and Dogecoin (DOGE) ETFs have the highest chances of getting approved, especially LTC ETFs.
In their projection table, the analysts noted that the Litecoin ETFs filed by Grayscale and Canary Capital have a 90% chance of getting approved for trading this year, and Dogecoin ETFs have a 75% chance of getting the SEC’s stamp of approval.
The analysts’ projection spread across “Crypto Twitter” fast Monday night, sending Litecoin and Dogecoin prices up.
DOGE climbed over 6% in the day, while LTC was up more than 12% in the last 24 hours.
CoinGecko
Why are $LTC and $DOGE ETFs More Likely to Get Approval in 2025?
According to the analysts’ presentation, the reason Litecoin ETFs have a much higher chance of getting approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is due to its regulatory status.
Unlike a host of major altcoins designated as securities by the Gary Gensler SEC, Litecoin and Dogecoin are “likely” viewed by the Wall Street regulator as commodities, they pointed out.
NEW: @EricBalchunas and I took a look at the filings for spot crypto ETFs. We’re putting out relatively high odds of approval across the board. Mainly focused on Litecoin, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin for now.
Here’s the table with the odds and some other details: pic.twitter.com/xaXaNXLb0M
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) February 10, 2025
How About $SOL and $XRP ETFs?
There have been more applicants for issuing Solana and XRP ETFs compared to Litecoin and Dogecoin, but chances of SOL and XRP ETFs getting approved are lower.
For Solana ETFs, there is a 70% chance of getting approved this year, given how the SEC already acknowledged 19b-4 filings earlier this month. The regulator has an October deadline for approving or rejecting the applications.
For XRP ETFs, there has been no acknowledgement of 19b-4 filings as of early Tuesday. Also, the Gensler SEC has fought to “prove” that XRP is a security in its years-long lawsuit against top corporate XRP holder Ripple. Thus, Balchunas and Seyffart believe the odds of an XRP ETF getting approved is at 65%.
The analysts are expecting the SEC to “likely” acknowledge filings for XRP and DOGE this week.
Will $HBAR, $DOT ETFs be Approved in 2025?
Regarding the Hedera and Polkadot ETF filings by Canary and 21Shares respectively, the analysts cannot provide any information just yet, only that the SEC “may” view HBAR and DOT as commodities.
Late last month, Tuttle Capital filed for a leveraged Polkadot ETF along with several other crypto ETFs. Polkadot and HBAR being altcoins – crypto coins with utility – may positively affect their odds of getting approved.
Despite lower odds for some other crypto ETFs compared to Litecoin and Dogecoin, Balchunas noted that “all of this stuff (except Litecoin which was always high) was <5% prior to election,” which means the projected chances can relatively “grow the more we see these go through the typical process.”
Last year was the catalyst for cryptocurrency ETFs following the approval of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. This year could pave the way for more altcoin ETFs to be approved, especially with fresh perspectives in terms of leadership at the SEC.
