The long-delayed September jobs report is set to be released later Thursday morning, offering a crucial snapshot of the U.S. labor market at a time when many Americans are dealing with rising living costs and corporate layoffs are frequently making headlines.
Economists expect employment to have risen by around 50,000 jobs in September, a modest improvement compared with the mere 22,000 jobs added in August, but still far below the 2024 average monthly gain of roughly 168,000 jobs. The unemployment rate is projected to have held steady at about 4.3 percent.
The delay in the report stems from the 43-day federal government shutdown, which disrupted data collection and forced the abandonment of the typical early-October release schedule. That blackout of data has magnified the importance of this report, as policymakers and market-watchers have had little fresh labor-market information to go on.
The expected number reflects a labor market that is still holding up, but clearly losing momentum. A 50,000-job gain would signal that hiring remains positive, yet at a markedly slower pace than during the stronger months earlier in the year. It suggests that cost‐of‐living pressures, weaker consumer demand and cautious corporate hiring are all weighing on employment growth.
As the report is issued, attention will turn to more than just the headline jobs figure. Analysts will be watching for wage-growth trends, labour-force participation, and whether unemployment is creeping up, all measures that help assess how much slack remains in the labour market. The way things go will matter for Federal Reserve policymakers, who face difficult decisions about whether to hold, cut or raise interest rates as inflation remains elevated even while hiring slows.
While this report won’t provide all the clarity many are hoping for, especially since the October data may never be released due to the shutdown, it will still stand out as one of the few reliable indicators of how the labour market is holding up.
