NINTENDO has asked suppliers to produce as many as 25 million units of the Switch 2 by the end of March 2026, setting the company up for record first-year sales of a console that’s already reached high-water marks for the global gaming sector.
The Japanese company is asking its manufacturing partners to ramp up output, counting on demand to persist over the coming holidays and into the new year, according to people familiar with the matter.
Nintendo, which began assembly of the Switch 2 around the end of calendar 2024, may still adjust the final production figures when it gets a clearer reading of demand during the critical holiday shopping season.
As of now, Nintendo is likely to comfortably surpass analysts’ estimates for sales of 17.6 million devices in the fiscal year ending March, let alone its own much lower public forecast, the people said, asking not to be named discussing private plans.
Nintendo can be expected to sell roughly 20 million units of the Switch 2 this fiscal year, based on shipping estimates from its assembly partners, with any leftover consoles in inventory for the next fiscal year.
The ambitious production plan, which hasn’t previously been reported, shows an entertainment giant going all-out to secure the success of its flagship device and avoid the mistakes of rivals.
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Nintendo’s future hinges on the US$450 Switch 2 being a success, and the company more than doubled marketing spending around its June launch to ensure it gets off to a fast start.
Shares in the Kyoto-based company have risen more than 50 per cent over the past year, buoyed by record-setting early sales of the new hardware.
Investors have cooled in recent weeks, after successive new highs, but the company is still projected to report 68 per cent growth in quarterly revenue when it unveils earnings next month. Many analysts expect it to upgrade its annual forecasts then, including for the Switch 2.
Nintendo did not respond to a request for comment.
In the US, Nintendo’s biggest market, sales are trending 77 per cent ahead of the original Switch released in 2017, according to Circana research, and Nintendo is likely to exceed its conservative Switch 2 outlook with months to spare.
The company is doing everything it can to maximise sales and excitement in the crucial few months after launch, including holding the new console’s price steady in the face of new tariffs by the US.
Nintendo has learned from the struggles of Sony Group and Microsoft, whose most recent launches – during the pandemic – were undermined by supply chain disruptions that limited availability and stunted growth.
The Switch 2 creator built up ample supply for first-day sales and is maintaining a high rate of production for the foreseeable future. The new console’s built-in advantage is that it is compatible with the entire Switch games library, giving it a large software ecosystem from day one.
Keeping the foot on the gas comes with risks for Nintendo, including a potential drop in demand triggered by macroeconomic ructions.
For now, that appears a remote prospect, as there are still many consumers waiting to get ahold of a Switch 2, with stores in some markets still not fully stocked. Even some criticism about its newly introduced game-key cards has done little to dampen enthusiasm.
This month’s launch of Pokemon Legends: Z-A will provide another potential catalyst for Switch 2 purchases. BLOOMBERG
