[SINGAPORE] Oil prices edged higher on Monday (Jan 12) as escalating protests in Iran sparked concerns about supplies from the Opec producer, while efforts to resume oil exports from Venezuela and expectations the market will be oversupplied this year limited gains.
Brent crude futures climbed 5 US cents to US$63.39 a barrel by 12.33 pm while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at US$59.16 a barrel, up 4 US cents.
Both contracts rose more than 3 per cent last week to clinch their biggest weekly rise since October as Iran’s clerical establishment intensified its crackdown on the biggest demonstrations since 2022.
While a premium has formed in oil prices in recent days, the market is still underestimating the geopolitical risk from a wider Iran conflict that may impact oil shipments at the Strait of Hormuz, Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee.
“The market is saying show me the disruption to supply before materially responding,” he added. The civil unrest in Iran has killed more than 500 people, a rights group said on Sunday.
“There have also been calls for workers in the oil industry to down tools amid the protests,” ANZ analysts led by Daniel Hynes said in a note.
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“The situation puts at least 1.9 million barrels per day of oil exports at risk of disruption,” they added.
US President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to intervene if force is used on protesters. The president is expected to meet senior advisers on Tuesday to discuss options for Iran, a US official told Reuters on Sunday.
Still, Venezuela is expected to resume oil exports soon following the ouster of President Nicolas Maduro as Trump said last week the government in Caracas is set to turn over as much as 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the United States. That has set off a race among oil companies to find tankers and assemble operations to ship the crude safely from vessels and dilapidated Venezuelan ports, four sources familiar with the operations said.
Trafigura said in a meeting with the White House on Friday that its first vessel should load in the next week. Oil prices are expected to stay range bound unless there is a clear demand revival or a meaningful supply disruption, said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.
She added that oil futures are increasingly pricing in an oversupply narrative as market moves into 2026.
Meanwhile, investors are also watching potential supply disruptions from Russia amid the ongoing attacks by Ukraine targeting at Russian energy facilities and possible tougher sanctions by the US on Russian energy. REUTERS
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