With international oil markets facing price pressure and economic instability, OPEC+ has remained committed to gradually restoring supply. The producer alliance announced it will raise output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) for July 2025, marking its third consecutive monthly hike at that level. This move is part of the coalition’s broader strategy to roll back earlier voluntary cuts and stabilize the market.
The decision comes after months of turmoil in energy markets, where prices have declined and demand signals remain mixed. OPEC+, which is composed of major oil producers including Saudi Arabia and Russia, has long struggled to balance regaining market share with enforcing compliance among overproducing members. Despite internal tensions, such as Kazakhstan’s refusal to follow an output cut, the group chose to stick with its planned increase rather than expand it.
The joint increase in oil production is part of a bigger plan to win back market share and push countries that are producing too much to follow the rules. There have been disagreements within the group about how much oil each country should produce. Some countries, like Kazakhstan, refused to reduce their output. This led to talk that the group might make bigger changes, but in the end, they decided to keep the production increase the same for the month.
Brent crude has stayed close to $60 a barrel recently, down from earlier highs. Analysts warn that prices could fall further unless global demand keeps up with the growing supply. Some signs point to a possible 10 % drop soon. Still, OPEC+ producers say that lower oil stockpiles and a steady global economy support the decision to increase production.
Recent estimates suggest that global oil demand will rise by about 775,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025. The International Energy Agency expects a slightly smaller increase of 740,000 bpd. However, these demand gains may not be enough to balance the higher supply levels, which could lead to more pressure on oil prices.
The decision to increase supplies this month is part of a wider strategy to restore the 2.2 million bpd in voluntary output cuts that the main member states agreed to in the spring. Separate levels of supply curbs, meanwhile, will nevertheless remain in force until at least 2026. This keeps the oil market at the crossroads of oil supply and its correlation with economic development and geopolitical risk.
