KEY POINTS
- Eidman said Russian elites might consider overthrowing Putin if he is arrested by the ICC
- He noted that Putin’s presidency will surely collapse if Russia loses in the war in Ukraine
- Ukraine says that Russia has so far lost over 180,500 military personnel in the war
Russian President Vladimir Putin could soon find himself overthrown by Russian elites as the war in Ukraine extends into its 14th month, an expert suggested.
Speaking in an interview with Radio NV earlier this week, Russian sociologist Igor Eidman said that the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant against Putin has put a “ticking time bomb” on his presidency and said an arrest could lead to Russian elites overthrowing the Kremlin leader.
“When they realize that this complacency won’t work, that it doesn’t work out and everything is going to collapse quickly, then of course they will speak in a completely different way,” he said, adding, “And this dulled discontent, which already breaks through in some phone conversations, will turn into some real actions, in particular, the fact that Putin will really be overthrown.”
In addition to the ICC’s arrest warrant, Eidman noted that Putin’s presidency will surely collapse if Russia loses in the war in Ukraine.
“Ukraine’s counteroffensive will be fatal for Putin’s authority and that of his regime. I think, his regime won’t survive after such a defeat, not that long, but not for several months after such a defeat. And defeat would be not just surrendering everything, including Crimea, but even retreating to the positions of Feb. 24, 2022,” he continued.
As of Thursday, Ukrainian and Russian forces are still locked in a months-long fight for control of the eastern city of Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast. Russia recently claimed that it had cut off Ukrainian forces inside the city. Kyiv later disputed the claim and said supply lines were still open and that its defenses are holding.
Eidman’s remarks come as Russia makes preparation for an anticipated spring counteroffensive by Ukrainian forces.
Russia has so far lost 180,590 military personnel in the war, including 540 soldiers who were killed over the past day, according to estimates from the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. In addition, Moscow is also believed to have lost 3,646 tanks, 7,053 combat armored machines, 2,777 artillery systems and 5,637 vehicles and fuel tanks in the war.
