A new poll reveals that Vice President Kamala Harris holds a three-point lead over Republican candidate Donald Trump in traditionally conservative Iowa. The last poll of the 2024 presidential race by the famed Des Moines Register shows Harris, the Democratic nominee, at 47 percent, with Trump trailing at 44 percent.
The outcome was shocking in a state that Democrats haven’t won since Barack Obama in 2012, signaling an outlier. However, it hinted that the difference between the two candidates might be narrowing as Tuesday night’s election approaches. Nationwide, Trump and Harris are nearly neck and neck, with extremely tight margins in the seven swing states likely to determine the election.
Kamala Takes the Lead
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Over 70 million Americans have already voted early, with millions more set to vote on November 5. In September, polls in Iowa showed Trump leading Harris by four points, and his campaign has maintained that this is not indicative of the final outcome of the race.
In a memo released Saturday night, Trump’s aides highlighted another poll showing him ahead, claiming that it “more accurately reflects Iowa’s actual electorate.”
The campaign also slammed the methodology of the Des Moines Register poll, noting that early voting among Republicans is significantly higher compared to 2020.
They dissected various parts of the poll, including claims that Harris leads women by 20 points and seniors by 19 points. Trump had held an 18-point advantage over President Biden in Iowa as recently as June before Biden exited the race.
However, the new survey suggests that momentum may have shifted, potentially offering Harris an unexpected, though still unlikely, path to victory. Harris’s three-point lead falls within the poll’s margin of error, with Trump still considered likely to carry the state by a solid margin.
One pollster described this as a “remarkable shift” for the Republican. “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” said J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co, the company that conducted the poll. “She has clearly leaped into a leading position.”
Unexpected Advantage
Democrats had largely dismissed Iowa, with Harris concentrating instead on the critical seven swing states. Unexpectedly, the poll also showed independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. capturing three percent of the vote, though he had nine percent in Iowa according to June polls.
Harris’s gains in this Midwestern state come alongside a major media push, as she makes appearances on radio shows, cable networks, and soon on Saturday Night Live.
Harris’s surprising lead is supported by independent women voters, who have been predicted to lean Democratic, while men are overwhelmingly favoring Trump. Harris holds a 28-point advantage with these women, whereas independent men are trending toward Trump.
Another Iowa poll, however, still shows a strong lead for the Republican in the state.
An Emerson College poll found that Trump leads Harris by 53% to 43%. This 10-point lead falls comfortably within the poll’s three-point margin of error.
On Saturday night, Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds dismissed the poll’s findings, citing a Republican advantage in early voting as a reason for skepticism.
“Iowa Republicans are leading in early voting for the first time in decades, and have increased our voter registration advantage by 130,000+,” Reynolds wrote on X.
“President Trump will win Iowa if we vote and turnout our friends. Let’s prove the Des Moines Register wrong again!” she said.
Both Iowa polls were published on Saturday, just three days ahead of Election Day.
