The January jobs report provided some unexpected, good news for the Trump administration, but revised data for 2025 indicate that last year’s job market was worse than originally thought.
Nonfarm payroll jobs rose by 130,000 in January driving, the unemployment rate down to 4.3 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, the BLS also made adjustments to its 2025 data that indicated the job market was largely flat in 2025. The BLS lowered the number of jobs added for the year from 584,000 to 181,000.
The data suggests that 2025 was worse than originally thought, but 2026 has begun with unexpectedly robust job growth. The result is that the current unemployment rate of 4.3 percent still is higher than it was a year ago despite the strong start to the year.
January 2026 figures easily beat Dow Jones consensus expectation of 55,000 new jobs, CNBC reported, adding that the good news drove initial gains in the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Nasdaq Composite.
“Just in: GREAT JOBS NUMBERS, FAR GREATER THAN EXPECTED! The United States of America should be paying MUCH LESS on its Borrowings (BONDS!),” President Trump wrote on Truth Social in reaction to the numbers.
There are however some warning signs regarding the economy for 2026. The 30-year bond rate dropped by 6.1 basis points on Tuesday to almost 4.79%, the lowest level since Jan. 15. Retail sales were flat at the end of 2025.
“The December retail sales report was ugly, with sales flat on the month versus expectations for a 0.4% gain, following a 0.6% advance in November,” EY-Parthenon Chief Economist Gregory Daco wrote in a Tuesday client note quoted by Marketwatch. “While some affluent households continued to spend freely through the holidays, most consumers were far more judicious and relied increasingly on credit and savings drawdowns to sustain outlays.”
