On January 18, 2025, macro analyst Carl Moon Runefelt warned of an impending financial meltdown. Three months later, with the S&P 500 down nearly 20% and emergency Fed cuts in play, his prediction is looking less like fearmongering and more like foresight.
“Debts are rising alongside greed and euphoria in the stock market. The signs of a financial crisis are growing. I believe we will see a big financial meltdown in the coming months. Bitcoin is the Noah’s ark in the economic flood that is coming. Get in the boat,” Runefelt wrote on Twitter.
At the time, the tweet got little traction. It slipped past most finance media without so much as a headline. But now, with volatility spiking and credit markets seizing up, more analysts are circling back to what Runefelt flagged months ago.
Attached to his original post was a chart showing the federal funds rate climbing to recession-triggering levels. In a follow-up YouTube video titled How I Predicted This STOCK MARKET Crash, Runefelt explained the cycle he sees repeating. When the Fed peaks and then starts cutting hard, a recession tends to follow. “They lower interest rates, then comes the recession,” he said. “It’s not about if, it’s about when.”
He didn’t stop there. In the same video, Runefelt laid out what he believes is next. Zero percent interest rates. Aggressive money printing. And a macro setup built for Bitcoin. “We’re going to see zero percent interest rates again. They’ll print extreme amounts of money,” he said. “That’s why Bitcoin is the best way to secure your wealth.” For Runefelt, Bitcoin isn’t just a speculative asset. It’s financial armor.
Since February, the markets have begun to align with his thesis. The Fed slashed rates by 75 basis points in an emergency move. Defaults are rising. Credit is tightening. The S&P 500 is sliding. Most analysts are now sounding recession alarms, but Runefelt says that’s exactly the problem. “Accuracy means saying what people don’t want to hear when markets are at all-time highs.”
Even as crypto fell alongside equities, Runefelt stuck to his forecast. He believes Bitcoin will rebound once the liquidity taps open. His price target remains $300,000 per coin by year-end. He’s still calling for a million-dollar Bitcoin in the next 5 years. In the meantime, he says he’s stacking more Bitcoin and Ethereum while trading the swings. He continues promoting platforms he uses, urging his audience to stay engaged while others panic.
Carl Moon Runefelt isn’t taking a victory lap. He’s asking why the warnings were ignored. “It’s about understanding macro cycles, human behavior, and liquidity,” he said. “That’s what I’ve been studying for years.” His tweet is no longer a warning. It’s a receipt. And if the Fed stays on its current course, it could mark a shift in how markets treat independent macro voices in crypto.
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