President Donald Trump has spent months dangling the promise of tariff‑funded cash payouts, but the mechanics and timing of those ‘tariff dividends’ remain uncertain and politically fraught. Rather than a straightforward tax refund, the proposed £1,600 ($2,000) cheques are an untested experiment built on trade‑war revenue, and even the administration now concedes that patience will be required.
In his most recent comments, Trump has pushed the likely payment window further back, telling The New York Times that, if the plan goes ahead, cheques would not arrive until ‘toward the end of the year’ in 2026.
Trump’s Shifting 2026 Rebate Timeline
President Trump has repeatedly pitched the idea of £1,600 ($2,000) rebates funded directly by tariff income, a populist economic lever he has championed for months. In November, Trump told reporters on separate occasions that the cheques would be disbursed ‘sometime’ in 2026 and ‘middle of, a little bit later than that’.
Despite the timeline moving, the President remains bullish on the funding source for these payments, brushing off concerns about trade war instability. ‘The tariffs have made us a fortune’, Trump told The New York Times in the interview, later saying, ‘the tariff money is so substantial’. He also noted his belief that these economic barriers have ‘made us nationally secure’.
Trump pointed to the precedent set by the £1,400 ($1,776) cheques for the military, which he said in December were possible ‘because of tariffs’ and the One Big Beautiful Bill. That legislation appropriated £2.3 billion ($2.9 billion) to the Pentagon to supplement the payments.
NYT: “You promised $2,000 checks to Americans based off of your tariff revenues. When can —”
Trump: “I did do that? When did I do that?”
Trump can’t keep track of all his lies. pic.twitter.com/tw4z1SSI6Y
— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) January 12, 2026
The Clash Over Tariff Revenue and Authority to Issue Cheques
While the President is confident about the ‘when’, a significant constitutional battle is brewing over the ‘how’. Trump explicitly disagreed with others within his administration regarding the mechanics of the payout, telling The New York Times that he doesn’t ‘believe’ he needed Congress to approve the cheques.
This assertion of executive power directly contradicts the stance of his own financial advisors.
Last month, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said he expected Trump to back legislation for the £1,600 ($2,000) tariff rebate cheques but noted it would ultimately be up to Congress whether those cheques are sent out.
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett says he expects President Trump to “bring forth a proposal to Congress” in the new year on his vow to send Americans $2,000 checks, but wasn’t clear on where the funds would come from.
“It could come from tariff revenue, but in… pic.twitter.com/BL5FmlpP8i
— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) December 21, 2025
‘It could come from tariff revenue, but in the end, we get taxes, we get tariffs, we get revenue from lots of places, and then Congress decides how to spend those monies’, Hassett explained when asked about the rebates on CBS News’ Face the Nation.
Fiscal hawks in Trump’s party are also sceptical. Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin has warned that the US ‘can’t afford’ the scheme, aligning with outside analyses that question layering new rebates on top of existing deficits. Trump, for his part, has brushed aside those concerns, saying there is enough money to fund the rebates and still support other priorities such as deficit reduction and defence spending.
Congress already has one tariff‑dividend blueprint on the table. Senator Josh Hawley of Missouri introduced a bill in 2025 that would send out tariff‑funded payments similar to COVID‑era stimulus cheques, but at a much lower level than Trump’s £1,600 ($2,000) pitch
Scott Bessent Warns of Delays as Legal Battles Loom
The timeline is complicated by alternative proposals and looming legal challenges. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent initially suggested dividends could take the form of tax cuts, but later acknowledged legislation would be required for £1,600 ($2,000) tariff rebate cheques targeted at working families under set income limits. He cautioned that recipients might consider saving rather than spending the funds.
The initiative now hinges on a Supreme Court ruling over Trump’s tariffs, which could freeze the programme’s funding mechanism. Bessent insisted the Treasury—holding £610 billion ($774 billion)—could absorb the refunds if tariffs are struck down, though administrative fallout could be severe. He warned that distributing rebates under such circumstances could take “weeks, months…over a year.”
Originally published on IBTimes UK
