According to a bombshell report, the Trump administration is closer than many Americans realize to launching a major war with Iran, moving beyond limited strikes toward a sustained military campaign across the Middle East.
According to reporting from Axios, senior U.S. officials believe there is a 90 percent chance that “kinetic action” or active combat will occur within weeks if diplomatic gaps with Tehran are not bridged. This striking assessment comes even as negotiations continue with Iranian diplomats in Geneva.
Sources who spoke with Axios described the potential operation as far more extensive than past U.S. strikes, including the targeted missions in Venezuela earlier this year. Rather than a short, focused attack, the administration is reportedly considering a weeks-long campaign involving significant U.S. military assets and potentially coordinated with Israeli forces, with Tehran’s nuclear and missile infrastructure likely to be focal points.
Over the past several weeks, the U.S. has moved additional fighter jets, aircraft carriers, warships, air defense systems, and support aircraft into the Middle East, reflecting what defense analysts describe as preparations for a broad campaign if talks fail. Hundreds of U.S. military aircraft, including advanced fighters, have arrived near Iranian airspace, and more than one aircraft carrier strike group is now on station.
These deployments follow Trump’s decision earlier this month to send the USS Gerald R. Ford, one of the most advanced carriers in the U.S. fleet, to the Gulf, joining the USS Abraham Lincoln already stationed there. Small skirmishes between U.S. and Iranian forces have been reported in the Strait of Hormuz.
At the same time, a three-hour face-to-face meeting in Geneva between U.S. negotiators Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi did not yield a breakthrough, leaving diplomats and military planners eyeing a narrow window to avert hostilities. Iranian officials are expected to present a detailed proposal in the next two weeks to try to keep negotiations alive.
Axios reports that Israeli officials, too, have been vocal in recent days about the risk of wider conflict, reportedly preparing for scenarios in which war could begin “within days” if current tensions are not defused. Israel’s government has consistently pressed for harsher measures against Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities and called for regime change.
Some advisers warn President Trump against escalating to full-scale war; others argue that stepped-up military pressure is necessary to counter Tehran’s ambitions. The Axios report quotes an adviser saying Trump is “getting fed up with everything,” signaling internal impatience at stalled talks.
