The US dollar weakened on Friday (Sep 27) after a reading of US inflation indicated price pressures continue to cool, while the yen strengthened against the greenback after former defence minister Shigeru Ishiba was set to become Japan’s next prime minister.
The US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.1 per cent in August, matching expectations of economists polled by Reuters, after an unrevised 0.2 per cent gain in July. In the 12 months through August, the PCE price index increased 2.2 per cent after rising 2.5 per cent in July.
In addition, consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity, rose 0.2 per cent last month after an unrevised 0.5 per cent gain in July. The data was slightly below the 0.3-per-cent estimate, but indicated the economy still maintained some momentum in the third quarter.
The Federal Reserve has recently signalled a shift in focus away from inflation and towards keeping the labour market healthy, but delivered a larger-than-usual interest rate cut of 50 basis points (bps) last week.
“(Fed chair Jerome) Powell can breathe a little sigh of relief,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin.
“After pushing for a 50-bps cut instead of a more conventional 25-bps cut, the personal income and spending data so far vindicates that decision.”
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The dollar index – which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and euro – was down 0.39 per cent at 100.21 after falling to 100.15, its lowest since Jul 20, 2023, with the euro up 0.16 per cent at US$1.1195.
The dollar is down nearly 0.6 per cent for the week, on pace for its fourth straight weekly decline. The euro is up more than 0.3 per cent and set for a second straight weekly gain.
Markets are fully pricing in a cut of at least 25 bps at the Fed’s November meeting, with expectations for another upsized 50-bps cut edging up to 54.1 per cent after the data, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool, from 49.9 per cent before the release.
The yen strengthened after Japan’s Ishiba won the leadership contest of the country’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party in a narrow victory.
Ishiba is a critic of past monetary stimulus, and told Reuters the central bank was “on the right policy track” with rate hikes thus far.
Markets had been largely expecting a win for hard-line nationalist Sanae Takaichi, a vocal opponent of further interest rate hikes, pricing in loose monetary and fiscal policies and a weaker yen over the past week.
The yen was 1.43 per cent stronger at 142.75 per dollar after strengthening as far as 142.48, on track for its biggest daily percentage gain since Aug 5. For the week, the dollar is down about 0.7 per cent against the yen.
The euro fell 1.24 per cent to 159.83 against the Japanese currency. The euro was also down 0.13 per cent at US$1.1163 after data showed inflation in France and Spain rose less than expected, prompting traders to ramp up their bets on an October rate cut from the European Central Bank.
China, meanwhile, launched another round of stimulus measures on Friday, as the country’s central bank lowered interest rates and injected liquidity into the banking system, as it attempts to bring economic growth back towards this year’s target of about 5 per cent.
The dollar strengthened 0.16 per cent to 6.982 versus the offshore Chinese yuan. Sterling strengthened 0.04 per cent to US$1.3421 and is up more than 0.7 per cent on the week, poised for a second straight weekly advance. Reuters
