The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the August 2026 Employment Situation on Friday, Sept. 4, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The report will provide updated figures on nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate, average hourly earnings and labor force participation.
The release follows a July payroll drop of 23,000 and a 4.1% unemployment rate. The BLS reports that average hourly earnings increased 3.2% to $37.62 and that the labor force participation rate was 61.4% compared to a year ago.
The report will be due at 8:30 p.m. (Singapore time) for readers in Singapore. The data are monitored closely as they offer one of the best monthly indicators of the U.S. labor market and can impact expectations for Fed policy.
Economists Forecast Modest August Payroll Growth
Economists expect August payroll growth to remain subdued, although forecasts vary. A Reuters survey put the expected increase at 56,000 jobs, while other surveys have placed the estimate around 53,000 to 65,000. The unemployment rate was generally expected to remain around 4.1%, although some forecasts pointed to a slight increase.
The wide range of forecasts reflects uncertainty over the pace of hiring and several temporary factors affecting the August data. July’s decline was concentrated partly in local government education and retail trade, while health care continued to add jobs.
Private-sector hiring also provided a mixed signal ahead of the report. ADP said private employers added 38,000 jobs in August, down from a revised 46,000 in July and below the 47,000 consensus forecast. Education and health services accounted for 45,000 of the August increase, while manufacturing employment fell by 17,000.
August employment estimates have also historically been subject to revisions, adding another source of uncertainty around the initial payroll figure.
Immigration Policy Adds Downside Risk
Immigration policy is another factor economists are watching in the August employment data.
The termination of Temporary Protected Status for Haitian nationals has been cited by economists as a potential drag on payroll growth. Michael Gapen, chief economist at Morgan Stanley, estimated that the change could reduce payroll employment by about 15,000 in August.
“We are assuming a 15,000 drag on payrolls from the revocation of Temporary Protected Status for unauthorized Haitian immigrants,” said Michael Gapen, chief economist at Morgan Stanley. “It could be much larger. The TPS-affected Haitians account for an estimated 160,000 of national payrolls.”
Bill Adams, chief economist at Fifth Third Commercial Bank, expected nonfarm payrolls to decline by 25,000 in August.
“Immigration policy changes likely held back payrolls growth in August,” Adams said. “AI is having less of an effect on hiring than other factors like reduced immigration or tariff whiplash.”
The potential effect is particularly relevant to labor-intensive service industries, where immigrant workers account for a significant share of employment. However, the size of any impact from changes to work authorization cannot be established until the BLS data are released.
Fed Officials See Labor Market as Stable
The employment report is also arriving ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 15-16 policy meeting, although recent comments from Fed officials suggest inflation remains a more immediate policy concern.
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said in an Aug. 28 speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium that the labor market was broadly stable.
“Labor markets are quite stable. The jobless rate at 4.1% remains low by historical standards and hasn’t changed much in a couple of years.”
Warsh also said unemployment claims were near their lowest levels in decades and argued that slow monthly job growth partly reflected limited growth in the labor supply.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller made a similar assessment in remarks at a Reuters NEXT Newsmaker event on Sept. 3.
“Turning to the labor market, it is also in satisfactory shape. While there were indications in the second half of 2025 of easing labor demand, relative to supply, those signs evaporated. Job creation, though a bit volatile, has increased this year by an average of 60,000 a month through July.”
If the incoming inflation data continued to make progress, then Waller said he would be more likely to continue supporting the federal funds rate at its current level. He also indicated that he would not base his policy stance on the August employment report.
What to Watch in the Jobs Report
Investors and economists will be watching several figures beyond the headline payroll number:
The BLS revised May payroll growth down by 66,000 and June growth down by 37,000, leaving combined employment for those two months 103,000 lower than previously reported.
Report Could Shape September Fed Rate Decisions
The August report will provide another indication of whether the U.S. labor market is settling into a period of low hiring and low layoffs.
The labor market had been fairly stable despite modest payroll growth so far through July. Job growth averaged approximately 60,000 per month until July, when the unemployment rate was 4.1%,” Waller said.
Meanwhile, in July the labor force participation rate was 61.4%, which decreased from 62.2% in July of last year. The BLS reported a drop of 0.7 percentage point from January’s participation rate.
The combination of low payroll increases, a relatively low unemployment rate and slow labor force growth is why the August data is significant to evaluating the underlying supply/demand balance.
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