Venezuela moved closer toward initiating Latin America’s first inter-state military conflict in nearly 30 years Sunday, as voters approved plans to formally annex the disputed oil-rich western half of neighboring Guyana.
The controversial referendum passed with over 90% of the vote, according to Venezuelan authorities, though independent observers noted strikingly low voter turnout.
The vote does not commit President Nicolás Maduro’s regime to taking any military action against Guyana, which has controlled and administered the sparsely populated Guyana Esequiba region since 1899 under British and independent authorities. The Venezuelan government now will formally recognize Guyana Esequiba as a federative state, which experts argue, will provide a pretext for future military incursions.
Guyana Esequiba accounts for 74% of Guyana’s total current land area and less than 25% of its population. Control of the region’s coastline would, in theory, grant Venezuela access to the offshore Stabroek oil block, the site of Guyana’s recently-discovered oil reserves (estimated at over 8 billion barrels).
The non-binding referendum consisted of five questions, including whether to formally disregard the authority of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and whether to extend immediate citizenship to the residents of Guyana Esequiba. All five questions were approved, according to Venezuela’s electoral authority.
AFP
“It has been a total success for our country, for our democracy,” President Nicolás Maduro told supporters in Caracas on Sunday.
On Friday, the ICJ officially condemned any future military action against Guyana, but ruled that the referendum could still take place under international law, since the results are not technically binding.
As of Monday afternoon, Venezuela has not begun the mass movement of military forces necessary to begin an invasion. Last week, the Brazilian military mobilized an undisclosed number of troops along their northern border with Venezuela and Guyana.
“I want to assure Guyanese there is nothing to fear over the next number of hours, days, months ahead,” Guyanese President Irfaan Ali said in a televised address Sunday evening.
CARICOM, the Caribbean inter-governmental organization of which Guyana is a full member and Venezuela is an observer, issued a statement on Friday condemning the legality of Sunday’s referendum and deferring final authority over the long-standing border dispute to the ICJ.
The Maduro regime made international headlines again last Friday, when it formally opened a legal pathway for the candidacy of María Corina Machado, the leading opposition candidate ahead of elections scheduled for 2024 whose participation is currently prohibited. This was a key stipulation of temporary US sanctions relief on Venezuela’s oil sector, announced in Barbados in October.
Independent experts and critics of the regime have characterized the Guyana annexation referendum as a diversionary tactic intended to deflect attention from Venezuela’s lingering economic woes and numerous confirmed human rights violations under Maduro’s presidency.
