2022 was an eventful year in politics. Historical precedents were overturned by the Supreme Court, Republicans turned out in masse to take back control of the House, and a bipartisan group of legislators officially put to record the events leading up to the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol.
However, at the heart of almost every political story this year were two men: President Joe Biden and his once and potential future foil, former president Donald Trump.
When Trump announced his bid for the 2024 presidency in November, he immediately reignited a rivalry that will likely decide America’s next leader. Biden and his team were prepared for the announcement, quickly releasing videos mocking the former president while declaring him unfit for office.
Despite both men being over 75, with Biden recently turning 80, all signs point to the two once again facing off for the nation’s leadership role in 2024. For background, 1940 was the last time a president or former president lost his party’s nod, marking Trump and Biden as instant favorites.
Joe Biden’s time as president has thus far been eventful. He’s been responsible for guiding the country through the back end of the Covid-19 pandemic, dealing with a Russian invasion of a NATO-adjacent Ukraine, and tackling growing inflation and persistently high gas prices, just to start.
Tethered to his unfavorable ratings, Biden received a shot of confidence after the November midterms, when his Democratic party outperformed most all expectations to retain control of the Senate and compete for a slim minority in the House.
Biden coasted into the midterms with a gust of legislative successes at his back, including the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act and the first major gun violence legislation in 30 years.
Looking toward 2023, Biden and his administration will be facing many of the same problems. As Russia continues to lay waste to Ukraine, peace negotiations will be a key priority to regaining global stability, especially for the maintenance of global supply chains.
According to the official Biden-Harris administration page, the president’s immediate priorities will also include reigning in Covid-19, accomplishing significant climate action, further working toward racial equity, as well as addressing the economy, healthcare, immigration and the return of America as a global leader.
As for Trump, 2023 will likely be quite litigious. Recently struck with the news that his tax returns would be released, Trump is facing investigations from the New York Attorney General’s office, criminal referrals from the House Jan. 6 committee, and likely the most impactful of all, a probe by the Justice Department into his handling of classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago residence.
CNN released a poll in December that found most Americans prefer not to have to pick between Trump and Biden for a second time.
Jim Messina, who managed Barack Obama’s re-election campaign in 2012, told NBC News that it would be “crazy” for Democrats to assume they would be better off with a different nominee.
“If Democrats want to lose the general election in 2024, they should start screwing with Joe Biden,” Messina said in November.
Lately, Trump has been unable to gather the same support. While no significant challengers have stepped up to oppose the former president, there has been a noticeable void of support for the party leader.
Longtime Trump defenders like Rick Scott, Josh Hawley and Lindsey Graham are silent. Ted Cruz, who in September said “the whole world will change depending on what Donald Trump decides,” is now biding his time, and his decision on whether to run may be the best barometer for Trump’s invincibility.
Most worrying for Trump in the Republican arena is the emergence of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as a real threat to the party’s 2024 nomination.
While DeSantis has stayed mum on the topic, his popularity and name recognition grew exponentially in 2022, bolstered by his use of political stunts like the relocation of Venezuelan migrants from Texas to the heavily Democratic Martha’s Vineyard.
About 62% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents said they would prefer their party nominate someone other than Trump in 2024, with a similar 59% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents saying the same, according to CNN.
2023 will be a monumental year for the two men atop their respective parties. Joe Biden has yet to officially announce his intentions to run for the presidency again, but reports indicate he will likely announce his campaign early next year.
Trump is perhaps the weakest he has been politically since the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol and will have a long road ahead of him if he wishes to regain control of his party and once again represent Republicans in a bid for the White House.
