Vietnam is maintaining solid economic momentum and is positioning itself for a new phase of growth from 2026, according to recent assessments by international organisations that view the country’s prospects positively within the region.
The economy expanded by 8.02% in 2025, placing Vietnam among the fastest growing economies in Asia. Analysts consider the performance a key foundation for entering 2026 with stronger confidence, particularly as global demand gradually stabilises and regional supply chains continue to evolve.
The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) has forecast that Vietnam’s GDP could grow by 7.6% in 2026, the highest projected rate within the ASEAN+3 grouping, which includes the 10 ASEAN member states together with China, Japan and South Korea. Other institutions have also issued favourable projections, with UOB forecasting 7.5% growth, HSBC projecting 6.7% and the World Bank estimating 6.3%.
According to AMRO, the optimistic outlook reflects Vietnam’s increasingly prominent position in regional supply chains, particularly in high-tech manufacturing and exports. The country’s stable domestic demand and relatively solid macroeconomic fundamentals have further strengthened investor confidence.
Foreign business sentiment has also improved. The European Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam reported that its Business Confidence Index reached 80 points in the fourth quarter of 2025, marking the highest level in seven years. About 88% of surveyed European firms expressed optimism about Vietnam’s economic outlook for the 2026–2030 period.
Economist Le Xuan Nghia said that among the three core drivers of growth — labour, investment capital, and science and technology — investment remains the decisive factor for Vietnam’s economy. He noted that contributions from science and technology are still modest, while domestic enterprises have yet to develop sufficient internal strength to generate major breakthroughs independently.
He emphasised the importance of foreign direct investment (FDI), particularly in capital-intensive sectors such as energy. With annual infrastructure and energy transition needs estimated at tens of billions of USD, expanding FDI attraction will be essential to sustaining growth momentum. To achieve double-digit growth targets, Nghia suggested that total social investment must rise significantly above the current threshold of roughly 33% to 33.7% of GDP.
In 2025, total investment stood at about 32% of GDP while growth reached 8%, indicating limited room for further acceleration without substantial policy adjustments.
Nghia proposed three key priorities: continuing to promote FDI attraction, prioritising energy investment through sufficiently open mechanisms to draw international capital and expanding free trade zones to attract high-quality FDI and encourage technology transfer.
He also recommended allowing domestic firms more appropriate access to overseas borrowing and reassessing the 0% USD deposit interest policy. Administrative restructuring under the two-tier local government system, he added, has affected the pace of public investment disbursement.
AMRO noted that rising global demand for advanced electronics, semiconductors, digital services and artificial intelligence applications is generating significant momentum for highly open economies like Vietnam. Deeper participation in regional technology value chains is viewed as a long-term advantage.
In its update released in late January 2026, Fitch Ratings stated that stability and continuity in senior leadership could support reform progress and improve policy implementation efficiency.
However, Fitch warned that ambitious growth targets may create pressure for rapid credit expansion, increasing leverage risks in an economy with high trade openness. Vietnam’s credit-to-GDP ratio has risen markedly in recent years, and the State Bank of Vietnam’s credit growth target of about 15% in 2026 is seen as an effort to balance growth support with systemic risk control.
Risks from the global trade environment remain present. Fitch pointed out that Vietnam’s increasingly complex position in supply chains could lead to stricter scrutiny over product origin and transshipment activities. AMRO also highlighted uncertainties related to international trade policies and global financial conditions.
Overall, international organisations believe that Vietnam’s future growth will depend on maintaining macroeconomic stability, improving the investment climate, enhancing the quality of capital inflows and raising productivity, laying the groundwork for a more sustainable expansion cycle from 2026 onward.
