[HONG KONG] Most stocks fell on Thursday and oil rose as traders kept a nervous eye on the Iran-Israel ceasefire, while the dollar dropped after Donald Trump said he had a handful of candidates to succeed Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell, fuelling rate cut bets.
Uncertainty over the US president’s trade war was also keeping sentiment subdued, with most countries still not reaching deals with Washington to avert the reimposition of steep tariffs ahead of a July 9 deadline.
With a shaky peace between Iran and Israel holding for now, Trump said he would hold nuclear talks with Tehran next week, even after insisting that US strikes had set its atomic programme back “decades”.
“We may sign an agreement. I don’t know,” he told reporters.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian had said Tuesday his country was willing to return to negotiations but that it would continue to “assert its legitimate rights” to the peaceful use of nuclear energy.
Crude prices, which tanked Monday and Tuesday after the ceasefire was announced, edged up for a second day, though gains were capped by the possibility that Opec and other key producers will lift output.
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“While the Israel-Iran conflict is now de-escalating, we still believe that geopolitical risks remain where the ceasefire could easily fall apart,” wrote Kai Wang, Asia equity market strategist at Morningstar.
“While this possibility remains elevated, we do not believe that there would be a restriction on oil supply even under a re-escalating scenario. Given that oil has retreated to preconflict price levels, we believe that any future increase in oil price is likely to be short-lived.”
Equity markets were mostly down, with Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Singapore, Seoul, Jakarta and Wellington in the red but Tokyo and Taipei in positive territory.
That came after a tepid lead from Wall Street, where the Nasdaq was the standout after chip titan Nvidia shot up more than four per cent to a record high, giving it a market valuation of around US$3.76 trillion. That makes it more valuable than Microsoft, Apple and other tech giants.
The dollar held losses after Trump’s latest salvo against Powell and suggestion that he was already lining up his replacement.
Since returning to the White House the president has constantly hit out at the Fed boss for not cutting rates, questioning his intelligence and stoking worries about the bank’s independence.
“I know within three or four people who I’m going to pick,” he told reporters after a Nato summit.
“I mean he goes out pretty soon fortunately because I think he’s terrible,” Trump said of Powell, whose term ends in May next year.
Trump added that Powell was “average mentally” and had “low IQ for what he does”.
The Wall Street Journal reported that the Republican was considering making an announcement in September or October, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, economic adviser Kevin Hassett and former Fed governor Kevin Warsh among the contenders.
Trump’s remarks came days after Powell told lawmakers the bank needed to see the impact of the president’s tariffs on the economy before making a move.
“Trump’s nomination will amp up the pressure, to the point where we could have a shadow Fed chair before Powell steps down in May next year,” said National Australia Bank’s Rodrigo Catril.
“We think it’s fair to suggest that the pressure on Powell to cut rates will increase, and that’s adding to selling pressure on the dollar.” AFP
