THE Bank of Japan (BOJ) expects the economy to move closer to sustainably achieving the central bank’s 2 per cent inflation target next year, governor Kazuo Ueda said on Wednesday (Dec 25), suggesting the timing of its next interest rate increase was nearing.
But he warned of the need to scrutinise the fallout from “high uncertainties” surrounding overseas economies, especially the economic policies of the incoming US administration of president-elect Donald Trump.
The outlook for next year’s wage negotiations between Japanese firms and unions is also key, Ueda said in explaining factors the central bank would scrutinise in setting policy.
“The timing and pace of adjusting the degree of monetary accommodation will depend on developments in economic activity and prices as well as financial conditions going forward,” Ueda said in a speech to business lobby Keidanren.
The remarks underscore the BOJ’s resolve to keep pushing up short-term rates from the current 0.25 per cent next year. Most analysts expect the bank to raise rates to 0.5 per cent in January or March.
The BOJ ended negative interest rates in March and raised its short-term policy target to 0.25 per cent in July. It has signalled a readiness to hike again if wages and prices move as projected.
BT in your inbox
Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox.
Consumption has shown signs of improvement as intensifying labour shortages push up wages, Ueda said, stressing progress Japan has made in durably achieving the BOJ’s price target after years of aggressive monetary stimulus.
In the current phase of transition towards achieving 2 per cent inflation in a sustainable manner, the BOJ will support the economy by keeping its policy rate lower that levels neutral to the economy, Ueda said.
But if the economy continues to improve, the BOJ will raise rates, as maintaining excessive monetary support for too long could heighten inflationary risks, he said.
“Our projection is that the virtuous cycle will further intensify and that Japan’s economy will move closer to sustainable and stable 2 per cent inflation, accompanied by wage increases,” Ueda said on the prospects for 2025.
“Prices of a wide range of goods and services have begun to rise moderately recently, reflecting increasing wages. Against this background, we judge that sustainable and stable achievement of our 2 per cent inflation target is now within sight.”
The speech followed remarks Ueda made last week, calling for the need to await more information on Trump’s policy stance and domestic wage developments before hiking borrowing costs again.
Those remarks at a press conference after the BOJ kept rates steady, were interpreted by investors as dovish, helping push the yen to its weakest since July and triggering warnings by Japanese authorities.
Japan must see wages rise at levels consistent with 2 per cent inflation, Ueda said on Wednesday, adding that high profits achieved by big firms must be distributed to smaller firms and households for the economy to durably meet the BOJ’s inflation target.
“We will examine how wage hikes by small and midsize firms will evolve, using our network of branches,” Ueda said.
The BOJ will release its quarterly report on regional economic conditions on Jan 9, which will likely include its view on whether wage hikes are spreading nationwide.
The report will likely be among the factors the BOJ’s board will scrutinise for its next policy decision on Jan 24. REUTERS
