Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has elected Sanae Takaichi as its new leader, positioning her to become the country’s first woman to serve as prime minister. She defeated Agriculture Minister Shinjirō Koizumi in a runoff vote, winning 185 to 156, or 54.25 % to 45.75 %, after earlier rounds of voting.
The LDP’s dominance in the lower house means that, barring major opposition unity, Takaichi is very likely to be confirmed as prime minister in mid-October. Former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has already announced his intention to step down, clearing the path for a new cabinet.
Early Life and Political Rise
Born in 1961, Takaichi’s early roots were in Nara Prefecture. Over the years she has built a reputation as a staunch conservative within the LDP, aligning particularly with the faction associated with the late Shinzo Abe. She is often compared to Margaret Thatcher in style and determination, a comparison she has neither openly embraced nor rejected.
Her parliamentary career has covered a range of policy portfolios. She has served as Minister of State for Economic Security, and previously has been involved in internal affairs and communications. Within the LDP, she has long been viewed as part of its hardline conservative wing, particularly on national security and constitutional revision.
She has also faced controversy. For instance, in September 2025, she made remarks claiming that foreign tourists had kicked deer in Nara Park, a claim met with skepticism and criticism for relying on unverified claims. Her past visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, which honours Japan‘s war dead (including class-A war criminals), have drawn criticism from China and South Korea, who view the shrine as a symbol of Japan’s wartime militarism.
Policy Outlook: Continuity, Ambition and Tensions
Economic and Fiscal Policy: A New Chapter of “Abenomics”?
Takaichi is widely seen as a proponent of Abenomics-style economic policies: loose monetary policy, bold fiscal stimulus, and structural reforms. She has voiced criticism of the Bank of Japan’s attempts to raise interest rates, arguing that tightening too early could stifle growth, especially given ongoing inflation pressures.
In a recent commentary, she proposed a concept called “crisis management investment,” advocating state-led spending in strategic sectors like AI, semiconductors, biotechnology, defense, and advanced materials, not only to stave off immediate shocks but also to reinvigorate Japan’s long-dormant growth trajectory. Still, she says she intends to balance ambition with fiscal discipline by carefully managing Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio.
Markets reacted swiftly: Japanese equities surged to record highs on the expectation of continued fiscal stimulus, while the yen weakened sharply — falling past ¥150 per U.S. dollar, as investors priced in looser monetary expectations. Some analysts now question whether Takaichi will oppose all rate hikes, or moderate her stance depending on external pressures.
National Security, China, and Constitutional Reform
Takaichi is known for her hawkish views on China and desire to see Japan play a more assertive security role. She has supported revising Article 9 of Japan’s constitution, which currently renounces Japan’s right to wage war. Her pro-Taiwan leanings and past statements have drawn scrutiny from Beijing, especially given the sensitivity of cross-strait regional dynamics.
She inherits a challenging diplomatic terrain. Japan’s long-standing alliance with the United States remains central; during her campaign she pledged to uphold and strengthen that bond. She also expressed reservations about aspects of the current U.S.-Japan trade agreement, saying a “do-over” could be on the table. If confirmed, she’s likely to appoint experienced hands to key cabinet posts: reports indicate she will name former party heavyweight Toshimitsu Motegi as foreign minister and former defense minister Minoru Kihara as chief cabinet secretary.
Gender Politics and Internal Party Dynamics
Takaichi’s rise represents a symbolic milestone in a country long criticized for gender inequality in leadership. Nevertheless, her record on gender reform is mixed. She has opposed initiatives such as allowing married couples to retain separate surnames and female succession to the throne — positions that have worried Japan’s feminist and reformist movements. Some analysts believe her embrace of greater female representation is more strategic than ideological.
Within the LDP, Takaichi must also navigate factionalism and regaining unity: the party has suffered significant losses in recent elections and now controls no outright majority in either chamber of parliament. To pass legislation, she may need to negotiate with opposition parties or expand coalitions, a delicate balancing act given ideological divides.
The Road Ahead: Challenges and Risks
Takaichi’s path to power is nearly assured, but her challenges are formidable:
- Parliamentary approval: The Diet is expected to vote around Oct 15. Though the LDP remains the largest party in the lower house, opposition parties could try to block her confirmation.
- Fragile mandate: The LDP’s electoral weakening means Takaichi will need to rebuild public trust, especially on bread-and-butter issues like inflation, cost-of-living, and demographic decline.
- Economic trade-offs: Her stimulus ambitions may clash with pressure to restore fiscal balance and limit national debt, especially if global interest rates rise.
- Diplomatic tightrope: Her tough posture toward China and security ambitions will test Japan’s regional relationships, particularly with neighbors like South Korea and China.
- Coalition and legislative math: Without a guaranteed majority, Takaichi must manage coalition politics and possibly offer concessions to opposition partners to get bills through.
Some analysts caution that despite her strong rhetoric, structural constraints may limit how far she can push toward Abenomics 2.0. The question now is whether she can translate symbolic breakthrough into substantive reform without fracturing her party or alienating key stakeholders.
